Book Review of “Frenemies: The Epic Disruption of the Ad Business (and Everything Else)”

“Advertising in Times Square”, image by Dirk Knight

Every so often, an ad campaign comes along that is strikingly brilliant for its originality, execution, persuasiveness, longevity, humor and pathos. During the mid-1980’s, one of these bright shining examples was the television ads for Bartles & Jaymes Wine Coolers. They consisted of two fictional characters: Frank Bartles, who owned a winery and did all of the talking, and Ed Jaymes, a farmer who never spoke a word but whose deadpan looks were priceless. They traveled across the US to different locations in pursuit of sales, trying to somehow adapt their approaches to reflect the local surroundings. Bartles was very sincere but often a bit naive in his pitches along the way, best exemplified in this ad and another one when they visited New York.

These commercials succeeded beyond all expectations in simultaneously establishing brand awareness, boosting sales and being laugh-out-loud hilarious because Bartles’s and Jaymes’s were such charming, aw-shucks amateurs. In actuality, these ads were deftly conceived and staged by some smart and savvy creatives from the Hal Riney & Partners agency. For further lasting effect, they always had Bartles express his appreciation to the viewers at the end of each spot with his memorable trademark tagline of “Thanks for your support”. These 30-second video gems are as entertaining today as they were thirty years ago.

But those halcyon days of advertising are long gone. The industry’s primary media back then was limited to print, television and radio. Creativity was its  cornerstone and the words “data analytics” must have sounded like something actuaries did in a darkened room while contemplating the infinite. (Who knows, maybe it still does to some degree.)

Fast forwarding to 2018, advertising is an utterly different and hyper-competitive sector whose work product is largely splayed across countless mobile and stationary screens on Planet Earth. Expertly chronicling and precisely assaying the transformative changes happening to this sector is an informative and engaging new book entitled Frenemies: The Epic Disruption of the Ad Business (and Everything Else) [Penguin Press, 2018], by the renowned business author Ken Auletta. Just as a leading ad agency in its day cleverly and convincingly took TV viewers on an endearing cultural tour of the US as we followed the many ad-ventures of Bartles & Jaymes, so too, this book takes its readers on a far-ranging and immersive tour of the current participants, trends, challenges and technologies affecting the ad industry.

A Frenemy of My Frenemy is My Frenemy

Image from Pixabay

This highly specialized world is under assault from a confluence of competitive, online, economic, social and mathematical forces. Many people who work in it are deeply and rightfully concerned about its future and the tenure of their places in it. Auletta comprehensively reports on and assesses these profound changes from deep within the operations of several key constituencies (the “frenemies”, conflating “friend” and “enemy”). At first this might seem a bit too much of “inside baseball” (although the ad pitch remains alive and well), but he quickly and efficiently establishes who’s who and what’s what in today’s morphing ad markets, making this book valuable and accessible to readers both within and outside of this field.  It can also be viewed as a multi-dimensional case study of an industry right now being, in the truest sense of the word, disrupted.¹ There is likewise much to learned and considered here by other businesses being buffeted by similar winds.

Frenemies, as thoroughly explored throughout this book, are both  business competitors and partners at the same time. They are former and current allies in commerce who concurrently cooperate and compete. Today they are actively infiltrating each other’s markets. The full matrix of frenemies and their threats and relationships to each other includes the interests and perspectives of ad agencies and their clients, social media networks, fierce competition from streamers and original content producers like Netflix², traditional media in transition to digital platforms, consulting companies and, yes, consumers.

Auletta travels several parallel tracks in his reporting. First, he examines the past, present on onrushing future with respect to revenue streams, profits, client bases served, artificial intelligence (AI) driven automation, and the frenemies’ very fluid alliances. Second, he skillfully deploys the investigative journalistic strategy of “following the money” as it ebbs and flows in many directions among the key players. Third, he illuminates the industry’s evolution from Don Draper’s traditional “Mad Men” to 2018’s “math men” who are the data wranglers, analysts and strategists driven by ever more thin-sliced troves of consumer data the agencies and their corporate clients are using to achieve greater accuracy and efficiency in selling their goods and services.

A deep and wide roster of C-level executives from these various groups were interviewed for the book. Chief among them are two ad industry legends who serve as the x and y axes upon which Auletta has plotted a portion of his reporting. One is Martin Sorrell, who was the founder and CEO of WPP, the world’s largest advertising holding company.³ The other is Michael Kassan, the founder and CEO of MediaLink, a multifaceted firm that connects, negotiates and advises on behalf of a multitude of various parties, often competitors in critical matters affecting the ad business. Both of these individuals have significantly shaped modern advertising over many decades and are currently propagating some of the changes spotlighted in the book in trying to keep it vital, relevant and profitable.

Online Privacy v. Online Primacy

“Tug of War”, image by Pixabay

The established tradition of creativity being the primary driver of advertising creation and campaigns has given way to algorithm-driven data analytics. All of the frenemies and a myriad of other sites in many other parsecs of the websphere vacuum up vast amounts of data on users, their online usage patterns, and even go so far as to try to infer their behavioral attributes. This is often combined with additional personal information from third-party sources and data brokers. Armed with all of this data and ever more sophisticated means for sifting and intuiting it, including AI4, the frenemies are devising their campaigns to far more precisely target potential consumers and their cohorts with finely grained customized ads.

The high point of this book is Auletta’s nuanced coverage of the ongoing controversy involving the tension between frenemies using data analytics to increase click-through rates and, hopefully, sales versus respecting the data privacy of people as they traverse the Web. In response to this voracious data collection, millions of users have resisted this intrusiveness by adding free browser extensions such as AdBlock Plus to circumvent online tracking and ad distribution.5 This struggle has produced a slippery slope between the commercial interests of the frenemies and consumers’ natural distaste for advertising, as well as their resentment at having their data co-opted, appropriated and misused without their knowledge or consent. Recently, public and governmental concerns were dramatically displayed in the harsh light of the scandals involving Facebook and Cambridge Analytica.

Furthermore, Google and Facebook dominate the vast majority of online advertising traffic, revenues and, most importantly, the vast quantum of user information which ad agencies believe would be particularly helpful to them in profiling and reaching consumers. Nonetheless, they maintain it is highly proprietary to them alone and much of it has not been shared. Frenemies much?

Additional troubling trends for the ad industry are likewise given a thorough 3-D treatment. Auletta returns to the axiom several times that audiences do not want to be interrupted with ads (particularly on their mobile devices). Look no further than the likes of premium and the major streaming services who offer all of their content uninterrupted in its entirety. The growing ranks of content creators they engage know this and prefer it because they can concentrate on their presentations without commercial breaks slicing and dicing their narrative continuity. The still profitable revenue streams flowing from this are based upon the strengths of the subscription model.

Indeed, in certain cases advertising is being simultaneously disrupted and innovated. Some of the main pillars of the media like The New York Times are now expanding their in-house advertising staff and service offerings. They can offer a diversified array of ads and analyses directly to their advertisers. Likewise, engineering-driven operations like Google and Facebook can deploy their talent benches to better target consumers for their advertisers by extracting and applying insights from their massive databases. Why should their clients continue go to the agencies when their ads can be composed and tracked for them directly?

Adapt or Go Home

“Out with the Old, In with the New”, image by Mark

The author presents a balanced although not entirely sanguine view of the ad industry’s changes to maintain its composure and clients in the midst of this storm. The frenemy camps must be willing to make needed and often difficult adjustments to accommodate emerging technological and strategic survival methods. He examines the results of two contemporary approaches to avoiding adblocking apps and more fully engaging very specific audiences. One is called “native advertising“, which involves advertisers producing commercial content and paying for its placement online or in print to promote their own products. Generally, these are formatted and integrated to appear as though they are integrated with a site’s or publication’s regular editorial content but contain a notice that it is, in fact “Advertising”.

However, Auletta believes that the second adaptive mechanism, the online subscription model, will not be much more sustainable beyond its current successes. Consumers are already spending money on their favorite paywalled sites.  But it would seem logical that users might not be thus willing to pay for Facebook and others that have always been free. As well, cable’s cord-cutters are continuing to exhibit steady growing in their numbers and their migrations towards streaming services such as Amazon Prime.6

Among the media giants, CBS seems to be getting their adaptive strategies right from continuing to grow multiple revenue streams. They now have the legal rights and financial resources to produce and sell original programming. They have also recently launched original web programming such as Star Trek: Discovery on a commercial-free subscription basis on CBS All Access. This can readily be seen as a challenge to Netflix despite the fact that CBS also providing content to Netflix. Will other networks emulate this lucrative and eyeball attracting model?

As Auletta also concludes, for now at least, consumers as frenemies, appear to be the beneficiaries of all this tumult. They have many device agnostic platforms, pricing options and a surfeit of content from which to choose. They can also meaningfully reduce, although not entirely eliminate, ads following them all over the web and those pesky stealth tracking systems. Whether they collectively can maintain their advantage is subject to sudden change in this environment.

Because of the timing of the book’s completion and publication, the author and publisher should consider including in any subsequent edition the follow-up impacts of Sorrell’s departure from WPP and his new venture (S4 Capital), the effects of the May 2018 implementation of EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), and the progress of any industry or government regulation following the raft of recent massive data breaches and misuses.

Notwithstanding that, however, “Frenemies” fully delivers on all of its book jacket’s promises and premises. It is a clear and convincing case of truth in, well, advertising.

So, how would Frank Bartles and Ed Jaymes 2.0 perceive their promotional travels throughout today’s world? Would their folksy personas play well enough on YouTube to support a dedicated channel for them? Would their stops along the way be Instagram-able events? What would be their reactions when asked to Google something or download a podcast?

Alternatively, could they possibly have been proto-social media influencers who just showed up decades too soon? Nah, not really. Even in today’s digital everything world, Frank and Ed 1.0 still abide. Frank may have also unknowingly planted a potential meme among today’s frenemies with his persistent proclamations of “Thanks for your support”: The 2018 upgrade might well be “Thanks for your support and all of your data”.

 


For a very enlightening interview with Ken Auletta, check out the June 26, 2018 podcast entitled Game Change: How the Ad Business Got Disrupted, from The Midday Show on WNYC (the local NPR affiliate in New York).


1.   The classic work on the causes and effect of market disruptions, the disruptors and those left behind is The Innovator’s Dilemma, by Clayton Christensen (HarperBusiness, 2011). The first edition of the book was published in 1992.

2.    Netflix Topples HBO in Emmy Nominations, but ‘Game of Thrones’ Still Rules, July 13, 2018, New York Times, by The Associated Press. However, see also Netflix Drops Dud on Wall St. As Subscriber Growth Flops, July 16, 2018, New York Times, by Reuters.

3.   Sorrell is reported in the book as saying he would not leave anytime soon from running WPP. However, following the book’s publication, he was asked to step down in April 2018 following allegations of inappropriate conduct. See Martin Sorrell Resigns as Chief of WPP Advertising Agency, New York Times, by Matt Stevens and Liz Alderman, April 14, 2018. Nonetheless, Sorrell has quickly returned to the industry as reported in Martin Sorrell Beats WPP in Bidding War for Dutch Marketing Firm, New York Times, by Sapna Maheshwari, July 10, 2018.

4.  For a very timely example, see The Ad Agency Giant Omnicom Has Created a New AI Tool That is Poised to Completely Change How Ads Get Made, BusinessInsider.com, by Lauren Johnson,  July 12, 2018.

5.   Two other similar anti-tracking browser extensions in wide usage include, among others Ghostery and Privacy Badger.

6.   See also  Cord-Cutting Keeps Churning: U.S. Pay-TV Cancelers to Hit 33 Million in 2018 (Study), Variety.com, by Todd Spangler, July 24, 2018.

Single File, Everyone: The Advent of the Universal Digital Profile

Ducks at Parramatta, Image by Stilherrian

Throughout grades 1 through 6 at Public School 79 in Queens, New York, the teachers had one universal command they relied upon to try to quickly gather and organize the students in each class during various activities. They would announce “Single file, everyone”, and expect us all to form a straight line with one student after the other all pointed in the same direction. They would usually deploy this to move us in an orderly fashion to and from the lunchroom, schoolyard, gym and auditorium. Not that this always worked as several requests were usually required to get us all to quiet down and line up.

Just as it was used back then as a means to bring order to a room full of energetic grade-schoolers,  those three magic words can now be re-contextualized and re-purposed for today’s digital everything world when applied to a new means of bringing more control and safety to our personal data. This emerging mechanism is called the universal digital profile (UDP). It involves the creation of a dedicated file to compile and port an individual user’s personal data, content and usage preferences from one online service to another.

This is being done in an effort to provide enhanced protection to consumers and their digital data at a critical time when there have been so many online security breaches of major systems that were supposedly safe. More importantly, these devastating hacks during the past several years have resulted in the massive betrayals of users’ trust that need to be restored.

Clearly and concisely setting the stage for the development of UDPs was an informative article on TechCrunch.com entitled The Birth of the Universal Digital Profile, by Rand Hindi, posted on May 22, 2018. I suggest reading it in its entirety. I will summarize and annotate it, and then pose some of my own questions about these, well, pro-files.

Image from Pixabay

The Need Arises

It is axiomatic today that there is more concern over online privacy among Europeans than other populations elsewhere. This is due, in part, to the frequency and depth of the above mentioned deliberate data thefts. These incidents and other policy considerations led to the May 25, 2018 enactment and implementation of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) across the EU.

The US is presently catching up in its own citizens’ levels of rising privacy concerns following the recent Facebook and Cambridge Analytica scandal.¹

Among its many requirements, the GDPR ensures that all individuals have the right to personal data portability, whereby the users of any online services can request from these sites that their personal data can be “transferred to another provider, without hindrance”. This must be done in a file format the receiving provider requires. For example, if a user is changing from one social network to another, all of his or her personal data is to be transferred to the new social network in a workable file format.

The exact definition of “personal profile” is still open to question. The net effect of this provision is that one’s “online identity will soon be transferable” to numerous other providers. As such transfer requests increase, corporate owners of such providers will likely “want to minimize” their means of compliance. The establishment of standardized data formats and application programming interfaces (APIs) enabling this process would be a means to accomplish this.²

Aurora Borealis, Image by Beverly

A Potential Solution

It will soon become evident to consumers that their digital profiles can become durable, reusable and, hence, universal for other online destinations. They will view their digital profiles “as a shared resource” for similar situations. For instance, if a user has uploaded his or her profile to a site for verification, in turn, he or she should be able to re-use such a “verified profile elsewhere”.³  

This would be similar to the Facebook Connect’s functionality but with one key distinction: Facebook would retain no discretion at all over where the digital profile goes and who can access it following its transfer. That control would remain entirely with the profile’s owner.

As the UDP enters the “mainstream” usage, it may well give rise to “an entire new digital economy”. This might include new services such as “personal data clouds to personal identity aggregators or data monetization platforms”. In effect, increased interoperability between and among sites and services for UDPs might enable these potential business opportunities to take root and then scale up.

Digital profiles, especially now for Europeans, is one of the critical “impacts of the GDPR” on their online lives and freedom. Perhaps its objectives will spread to other nations.

My Questions

  • Can the UDP’s usage be expanded elsewhere without the need for enacting GDPR-like regulation? That is, for economic, public relations and technological reasons, might online services support UDPs on their own initiatives rather than waiting for more governments to impose such requirements?
  • What additional data points and functional capabilities would enhance the usefulness, propagation and extensibility of UDPs?
  • What other business and entrepreneurial opportunities might emerge from the potential web-wide spread of a GDPR and/or UDP-based model?
  • Are there any other Public School 79 graduates out there reading this?

On a very cold night in New York on December 20, 2017, I had an opportunity to attend a fascinating presentation  by Dr. Irene Ng before the Data Scientists group from Meetup.com about an inventive alternative for dispensing one’s personal digital data called the Hub of All Things (HAT). [Clickable also @hubofallthings.] In its simplest terms, this involves the provision of a form of virtual container (the “HAT” situated on a “micro-server”), storing an individual’s personal data. This system enables the user to have much more control over whom, and to what degree, they choose to allow access to their data by any online services, vendors or sites. For the details on the origin, approach and technology of the HAT, I highly recommend a click-through to a very enlightening new article on Medium.com entitled What is the HAT?, by Jonathan Holtby, posted yesterday on June 6, 2018.


1.  This week’s news bring yet another potential scandal for Facebook following reports that they shared extensive amounts of personal user data with mobile device vendors, including Huawei, a Chinese company that has been reported to have ties with China’s government and military. Here is some of the lead coverage so far from this week’s editions of The News York Times:

2.  See also these five Subway Fold posts involving the use of APIs in other systems.

3.  See Blockchain To The Rescue Creating A ‘New Future’ For Digital Identities, by Roger Aitlen, posted on Forbes.com on January 7, 2018, for a report on some of the concepts of, and participants in, this type of technology.

Mary Meeker’s 2018 Massive Internet Trends Presentation

“Blue Marble – 2002”, Image by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Yesterday, on May 30, 2018, at the 2018 Code Conference being held this week in Rancho Palos Verdes, California, Mary Meeker, a world-renowned Internet expert and partner in the venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins, presented her seventeenth annual in-depth and highly analytical presentation on current Internet trends. It is an absolutely remarkable accomplishment that is highly respected throughout the global technology industry and economy. The video of her speech is available here on Recode.com.

Her 2018 Internet Trends presentation file is divided into a series of twelve main sections covering, among many other things: Internet user, usage and devices growth rates; online payment systems; content creation; voice interfaces’ significant potential;  user experiences; Amazon’s and Alibaba’s far-reaching effects; data collection, regulation and privacy concerns; tech company trends and investment analyses; e-commerce sectors, consumers experiences and emerging trends;  social media’s breadth, revenue streams and influences; the grown and returns of online advertising; changes in consumer spending patterns and online pricing; key transportation, healthcare and demographic patterns;  disruptions in how, where and whether we work; increasingly sophisticated data gathering, analytics and optimization; AI trends, capabilities and market drivers; lifelong learning for the workforce; many robust online markets in China for, among many, online retail, mobile media and entertainment services; and a macro analysis of the US economy and online marketplaces.

That is just the tip of the tip of the iceberg in this 294-slide deck.

Ms. Meeker’s assessments and predictions here form an extraordinarily comprehensive and insightful piece of work. There is much here for anyone and everyone to learn and consider in the current and trending states nearly anything and everything online. Moreover, there are likely many potential opportunities for new and established businesses, as well as other institutions, within this file.

I very highly recommend that you set aside some time to thoroughly read through and fully immerse your thoughts in Ms. Meeker’s entire presentation. You will be richly rewarded with knowledge and insight that can potentially yield a world of informative, strategic and practical dividends.

TechDay New York 2018: 500 Local Startups’ Displays, Demos and Delights for the Crowd

All photos on this page by Alan Rothman.

Sometimes in traditional advertising for creative works like movies, TV shows, books and plays, the quoted reviews and taglines include the exclamation “This one’s got it all!” Yet this is only rarely, if ever, true.

Well, wait a minute. Let’s check that.

Last Thursday, May 10th, I had the great pleasure of attending TechDay New York 2018, held at Pier 94, on the West Side of midtown Manhattan. This is a monumental annual exhibition of 500 startups located throughout NYC almost did have it all. In addition to all of these new companies, there were separate areas set up for brief products and services demos and talks by industry experts. Even the TV show Shark Tank was on site there.

First and foremost, massive amounts of thanks to everyone at Techday for putting on such a terrifically enjoyable, informative and memorable event. Their efforts clearly showed that they worked long and hard to get everything about it right.

On to the show …

One of New York City’s greatest economic and cultural strengths has always been its incredible global diversity of it population. So, too, is that dynamic comparably evident in the breadth of it startup ecosystem. From one end of Pier 94 to the other, there was artificial intelligence this, blockchain that, and data analytics everything infused everywhere.

Just a sampling of who and what were on display, among many others, were startups in legal services, architecture, editorial software, video search, incubators and accelerators, social media support services, event planning platforms, programmer aptitude testing, intellectual property protection, pharmacy order and delivery services, office design consultants, branding and digital experience designers, augmented and virtual reality hardware and software, venture capitalist, crowdfunding services, multi-platform public relations strategists, fashion designers, food services (some displaying much chocolate!), consumer data tracking analyst, competitive intelligence trackers and analysts, restaurant reservations, media consultants, phone apps, online security planning and systems, fully integrated electronic health records and billing systems, and dedicated tech recruiters as well as exhibitors themselves looking for new talent. Whew!

Notwithstanding the vastness of the exhibition space, hundreds of startups and thousands of attendees, the organization and presentations of the startups’ display areas was well planned and easy to navigate. The startups were grouped in helpful sectors for social media, e-commerce, fintech and others into more general categories.

The three among the twelve TechDay Talks I attended were quite compelling and evinced great enthusiasm by both the speakers and their audiences. These included:

Above all other considerations, I found every entrepreneur I stopped and spoke with, asking them to tell me about their company, to be highly enthusiastic, engaging and sincere. They were knowledgeable about their markets and competitors, sounded willing to adapt to changing market conditions and, most importantly, convinced that they would become successful. At no point did any of them move on to their next visitors until they sensed that I understood what they were saying and encouraging me to follow their progress online. They were not so much giving visitors hard sales pitches, but rather, much more of the who, what, where, how and when of their businesses. My gratitude to all of them for their patience with me and many of the other attendees I saw them talking to with the same level of professionalism.

Below are some of the photos I took while I was there. I was trying to capture some sense of infectious energy and engagement being generated across entire day’s events.

My very best wishes to all 500 startups to succeed and prosper.

 


 *   For some very worthwhile deep and wide analysis of the effects of AI upon current and future employment, I highly recommend the recently published book entitled Human + Machine: Reimagining Work in the Age of AI, by Paul Daugherty (Harvard Business Review Press, 2018).


 

 

 

 

 

Book Review of “Built: The Hidden Stories Behind Our Structures”

“Brooklyn Bridge”, Image by Antti-Jussi Kovalainen

During the summer of 2010, I worked in an office directly across the street from the World Trade Center reconstruction site. For several months while my floor was being renovated, my temporary office windows faced west looking out onto the early construction of One World Trade Center. The daily swirl of highly coordinated planning and building was one of the most remarkable things I have ever seen. Hundreds of specialized craftsmen, managers, engineers, materials suppliers and numerous more worked in complete sync with each other to precisely anchor and assemble the tremendous base of the structure. Then they began steadily assembling the 104 stories of steel, concrete and glass above it climbing inexorably towards the sky.

Each day I looked out the windows and marveled at this modern miracle as it continually coalesced into one of the tallest buildings in the world.It was as exciting and entertaining to watch in person as any concert, movie or ballgame.

So, how did this magnificent monolith go from blueprints and computer visualizations to a finely tapered tower expressly intended to endure over time, meet all the modern business and technological needs of its occupants, embed environmental comfort, ensure local building code compliance, and remain state-of-the-art safe? Quite simply, who makes sure that buildings like this and many other structures such as bridges and stadiums actually stand up straight and stay that way?

Measure Twice

“The Shard”, Image by Mike Dixson

Among the many key participants in these processes are the structural engineers. They play an integral part in making certain that everything built is comprehensively planned and assembled strictly in accordance with all relevant design specifications. Yet might this sound a bit too math-geeky to want to learn anything more about them? Well, not anymore.

First-time author and accomplished structural engineer Roma Agrawal ( @RomaTheEngineer ), has recently written a fully engaging, highly informative and deeply inspiring 360-degree look at the work of these professionals entitled Built: The Hidden Stories Behind Our Structures, (Bloomsbury Publishing Plc, 2018). She has admirably transposed the same high standards of skill and precision required to be a structural engineer into also being a writer.

In equal parts personal story, travel log, history lesson and Intro to Structural Engineering 101, Ms. Agrawal quickly captures the reader’s attention and deftly manages to maintain it throughout all 271 pages. From mud huts to coliseums to bridge to skyscrapers (among other projects, she worked on The Shard in London), we learn about who was responsible and how these creations were conceived and realized. For instance, when we admire the artistry of an archway in a building, we usually never consider all of the math, physics and fabrication2 that go into creating it. Built will give you an entirely new point of view on this and a multitude of other fundamentals of structural engineering. The text also contains a wealth of historical perspectives on how bridges, tunnels, buildings and even sewers helped civilizations to expand their populations, civil services and commerce.

The author also believes that structural engineers do not get the credit they really deserve. Nonetheless, her book is a persuasive brief for their successes in making all structures remain standing (including London Bridge and why it is not falling down), function properly, and endure extreme weather conditions and changing geological factors.  In effect, it expertly explains how they carefully process and manage a myriad of concerns about their buildings’ operations, longevity and safety.

By virtue of its own structure, the book’s 14 chapters covering building materials, design and safety principles, construction methods, noteworthy construction projects, and famous structural engineers span widely across the globe and many centuries. The lively prose is involving and evocative, so much so that these chapters could even stand on their own as individual essays. But read sequentially the mesh together to deliver a very rewarding reading experience.

Generously appointing the text are many accompanying hand-annotated photos and hand-drawn simple sketches delineating the critical principles and features being described. These simple graphics significantly support in the reader’s comprehension of some of the more sophisticated concepts as they are introduced.

Cut Once

The Colosseum, Rome, Image by Christopher Chan

There are three important themes skillfully threaded throughout the book. First, in support of the popular current movement to encourage more young women to pursue studies and employment in the fields of science, technology, engineering and math (“STEM“), Ms. Agrawal’s success in structural engineering is intended to serve as a persuasive example for others. She writes that structural engineering is still a profession mostly practiced by men and believes that more women should consider becoming a part of it. Her advancement in this field should provide a high degree of inspiration for this intended audience as well as many other readers.

Of a truly great event very well told here, Ms. Agrawal recounts the remarkable story of her personal hero, Emily Warren Roebling. When the Brooklyn Bridge was being built (1869-1883), her husband, Washington Roebling, was the chief engineer on this project. When he became ill, his wife took over and become the de facto chief engineer. She delivered critical information from her husband to his assistants on site. Moreover, she mastered all aspects of the design, physics, materials and management of the bridge and is credited with having become the essential individual in getting this supremely complicated undertaking completed. Her devotion to this endeavor was simply extraordinary. Ms. Agrawal eloquently expresses her great admiration for Emily Roebling and why she was an inspiration for her own career path.

Second, she emphasizes the importance of being well prepared for all possible contingencies in her work. There are a multitude of variables to all be taken into account when building anything and it is imperative that structural engineers be able to anticipate, assess, test and decide how to definitively deal with all of them. Such unwavering diligence and exactitude is clearly applicable to many other jobs and professions. Ms. Agrawal effectively makes her case for comprehensive planning and precision at several key junctures in her writing.

Third and equally impressive is Ms. Agrawal’s boundless enthusiasm for her work. She so enjoys and believes in what she is doing that any reader in any field can benefit from from her example.  Granted that everyone’s work situation is different and often changeable can present a range of challenges. However, when someone like the author can sustain such genuine passion for the work she is doing, reading Built may well have the added benefit of providing you with a more positive perspective on your own employment as well that of others.

As proof, a new condominium was recently being built along one of my daily walking routes. I happened to be reading Built towards the end of its construction. After finishing the book, whenever I passed this site again, I saw all of the workers and their completed building with a newly enhanced understanding and admiration of it all.  I would never have previously had this appreciation without first relying upon this book’s, well, very solid foundation.

 


In a very different and more virtual context, a method for “building” a structure in one’s own mind as form of memory enhancement device whereby someone can then fill the “rooms” with many items that can later be retrieved and thus recalled at will was first devised in the 16th century.  This story was among the many subjects of a fascinating historical account entitled The Memory Palace of Matteo Ricci, by Jonathan D. Spence (Penguin Books, 1985).


1.   See the September 1, 2015 Subway Fold post entitled A Thrilling Visit to the New One World Observatory at the Top of the World Trade Center for photos and descriptions of the amazing views from the One World Observatory very top of 1WTC.

2.  See these 10 Subway Fold posts on other recent developments in material science including, among others, such way cool stuff as Q-Carbon, self-healing concrete (also mentioned in Built at pages 106 -107), and metamaterials.

Hey, What’s the Big Idea: Modeling the the Networks of Emerging Innovations

“Connex Labyrinth”, Image by fdecomite.

When you want to invite someone new into your LinkedIn network, the social business platform provides users with a simple formatted email making it easier to do this. It reads in part “I’d like to add you to my network”. Recently, a research team published the results of their work proving that a similar network effect 1 occurs not only among people, but also in a comparable manner among new ideas. As a result of such inventive schmoozing, ideas plus other new ideas can now be seen as yielding all kinds of unexpected links to innovation 2.

This “mathematical model for the emergence of innovations” mapping out all these processes was published by the School of Mathematical Sciences at Queen Mary University of London, as reported in a fascinating article about an exciting advance on Phys.Org in a story entitled Mathematicians Develop Model for How New Ideas Emerge, posted January 24, 2018. (No writer is credited.)  This article is a summary of the full paper by the research team responsible entitled Network Dynamics of Innovation Processes that appeared in the Physical Review Letters (subscription required), published on January 26, 2018.

I highly recommend a click-through and full read of the Phys.org article, including its two accompanying visualizations. I will recap and annotate some of the key points in this piece and then pose some of own questions about how and why ideas may either swipe left or swipe right when trying to meet up with each other.

New Modeling Combining Two Established Approaches

The research team was led by Professor Vito Latora, who was also the lead author of the paper. They found that by “studying creative processes and understanding how innovations arise” and, furthermore, how [mathematical] “novelties” can lead to additional discoveries, the results of these interactions can lead to “effective interventions” that could support the “success and sustainable growth” in our society. Similar patterns have been seen in scientific and artistic fields 3.

This was accomplished by first transposing the theory of the ‘adjacent possible’ from its original field of biological systems into, second, the “language of complex networks“. The former describes the “set of all novel opportunities” that arise whenever a new discovery appears. The latter has become a reliable means to study actual systems in the real world by examining the key relationships “between the components” and, in turn, modeling the “hidden structure behind many complex social phenomena”.

In effect, network modeling has been applied here to construct the “underlying space of relations among concepts”. Indeed, some very cool and productive connections are occurring within such idea-fueled networks.

Professor Latora further believes that understanding the key elements of a successful idea are critical to later making decisions, forming strategies and supporting successes.  He thinks that such results can be part of “sustainable growth in our society”.

Potential Benefits for Multiple Fields

Another new methodology was derived during the course of his team’s research: The concept of “reinforced walks” (as a subset of “random walks“, a form of mathematical object 4), was used as the basis to model the interaction among concepts and ideas. During all of this activity “innovation corresponds to the first visit of a site on the network”, as well as every time such a “walker”, as termed in the article, transits from one concept to another concept. The more this type of path is traveled, the more it becomes reinforced and thus productive. This network dynamic, named by the team as the “edge-reinforced random walk“, is clearly diagrammed and further described in the Phys.Org article’s first graphic.

In an actual case study applying this methodology, the research team built a database of 20 years’ worth of publications from a diversity of fields including “astronomy, ecology, economics and mathematics”. This was done to examine the emergence of new concepts. Their results of applying their edge-reinforced random walk model to this compilation was that they succeeded in reproducing evidence of the growth of knowledge in contemporary science.

Professor Latora and his team are currently working to extend their model by studying network spaces where several of these “walkers” are operating simultaneously 5.

My Questions

  • Can edge-reinforced random walks be adapted and applied to additional non-scientific and non-artistic domains such as history, politics and culture? That is, can it yield meaningful results and insights in sectors of society that are less data-derived?
  • How is this methodology distinguishable from various branches of artificial intelligence where vast stores of data are used to “train” the capabilities of these systems?
  • Can edge-reinforced random walks also be deployed as a form of predictive device? For example, what if a great deal more data from a larger diversity of fields was similarly compiled and tested, would this provide a partial preview into the future in science, technology and biology?
  • Taking this a step further, could edge-reinforced random walks be enhanced to include the capacity to predict or at least sense the possibilities and/or probabilities of entirely unpredictable major events such as market crashes? 6

 


For a comparative perspective, albeit a dated one published 18 years ago, on how human social systems and their interactions will still be needed in the all-encompassing “Information Age”, I suggest a book that is still considered a significant achievement for its time entitled The Social Life of Information, by John Seely Brown and David Duguid (Harvard Business Review, 2000).


1.  Network effects among people, populations and technologies have also been explored in these 10 Subway Fold posts.

2.  See also this April 28, 2016 Subway Fold post entitled Book Review of “Inventology: How We Dream Up Things That Change the World”

3.  Another example is the study of laws and legal precedents  in this manner as described in this May 15, 2015 Subway Fold post entitled Recent Visualization Projects Involving US Law and The Supreme Court.

4.  This concept as applied in securities trading is the subject of a classic text on this subject entitled A Random Walk Down Wall Street, by Burton Malkiel (W. W. Norton & Company, Eleventh Edition, 2016)

5.  In an entirely different context, fans of The Walking Dead will also appreciate how large groups of walkers manifest their own distinctly emergent behaviors.

6.  The leading text on this subject is The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Random House, 2010).

Taking Note of Music Tech’s VC and Accelerator Market Trends in 2017

As a part of today’s modern music industry there exists a complementary and thriving support system of venture capital firms and music tech startup accelerators who are providing a multitude of innovative services.  A fascinating examination of the current state of this ecosystem appeared in an article entitled Music Pushes to Innovate Beyond Streaming, But Investors Play It Safe: Analysis, by Cherie Hu, posted on Billboard.com on 7/24/17. I highly recommend reading it in its entirety for its insights, assessments and accompanying graphics.

I will summarize this feature here, add some links and annotations and, well, venture a few of my own questions. Also, I believe this is a logical follow to three previous Subway Fold posts about the music biz including:

Tempo

In mid-2017, the music tech market is generating signals as to its direction and viability. For example, Jawbone, the once thriving manufacturer of wearable audio devices is currently being liquidated; Soundcloud  the audio distribution platform let go of 40 percent of its staff recently only days before the firm’s tenth anniversary; and Pandora has experienced high turnover among its executives while seeking a sale.

Nonetheless, the leaders in music streaming are maintaining “the music industry’s growth”. Music tech showcases and music accelerators including SXSW Music Startup Spotlight, the Midemlab Accelerator, and Techstars Music are likewise driving market transformation.   During 2017 thus far, 54 music startups from more than 25 cities across the globe have taken part in these three entities. They have presented a range of submissions including “live music activations and automated messaging to analytics tools for labels and artists”.

While companies such as Live Nation, Balderton Capital and Evolution Media have previously invested in music startups, most investors at this mid-year point have never previously funded a company in this space. This is despite the fact that investments in this market sector have rarely returned the 30% that VCs generally seek. As well, a number of established music industry stars are participating as first-time or veteran investors this year.

Of the almost $900 million funding in music tech for the first half of this year, 75% was allocated for streaming services – – 82% of which went only to the leading four companies. However, there remains a “stark disconnect” involving the types of situations where music accelerators principally “lend their mentorship” in “hardware, virtual reality1, chatbots, label tools”, and the issues that VC concentrate the funding such as “streaming, social media, brands”.  Moreover, this situation has the potential of “stifling innovation” across the industry.

To date, music accelerators have “successfully given a platform and resources” to some sectors of the industry that VCs don’t often consider. For example, automated messaging and AI-generated music2 are both categories that music accelerators avoided until recently, now equal 15% of membership. This expansion into new categories reflects a much deeper “tech investment and hiring trends”. Leading music companies are now optimistic about virtual digital assistants (VDA) including chatbots and voice-activated systems such as Amazon Alexa3. As well, Spotify recently hired away a leading AI expert from Sony.

Rhythm

However, this “egalitarian focus” on significant problems has failed to “translate into the wider investing landscape” insofar as the streaming services have attracted 75% of music tech funding. The data further shows that licensing/rights/catalog management, social music media, and music, brands and advertising finished, in that order, in second at 11.1%, third at 7.1% and fourth at 3.9%.

These percentages closely match those for 2016. Currently, many VCs in this sector view streaming “as the safest model available”. It is also one upon which today’s music industry depends for its survival.

Turning to the number of rounds of music tech funding rather than the dollar amounts raised, by segments within the industry, a “slightly more egalitarian landscape” emerges:

  • Music hardware, AI-generated music, and VR and Immersive media each at 5.0%
  • Live music; music brands and advertising; streaming; and social music media each at 15.0%
  • Licensing, rights, and catalog management at 25% (for such companies as Kobalt Music, Stem and Dubset)

Categories that did relatively well in both their number of rounds of funding and accelerator membership were “catalog management, social music platforms, and live music”.

Those music tech startups that are more “futuristic” like hardware and VR are seen favorably by “accelerators and conference audiences”, but less so among VCs.  Likewise, while corporate giants including Live Nation, Universal Music Group, Citi and Microsoft have announced movement into music VR in the past six months, VC funding for this tech remained “relatively soft”.

Even more pronounced is the situation where musical artists and label services such as Instrumental (a influencer discovery platform) and chart monitors like Soundcharts have not raised any rounds of funding. This is so “despite unmatched attention from accelerators. This might be due to these services not being large enough to draw too “many traditional investors”.

An even more persistent problem here is that not many VCs “are run by people with experience in the music industry” and are familiar with its particular concerns. Once exception is Plus Eight Equity Partners, who are trying to address “this ideological and motivational gap”.

Then there are startups such as 8tracks and Chew who are “experimenting with crowdfunding” in this arena but who were not figured into this analysis.

In conclusion, the tension between a “gap in industry knowledge” and the VCs’ preference for “safety and convenience”, is blurring the line leading from accelerator to investment for many of these imaginative startups.

My Questions

  • Of those music startups who have successfully raised funding, what factors distinguished their winning pitches and presentations that others can learn from and apply?
  • Do VCs and accelerators really need the insights and advice of music industry professionals or are the numbers, projects and ROIs only what really matters in deciding whether or not to provide support?
  • Would the application of Moneyball principles be useful to VCs and accelerators in their decision-making processes?

 


1.  See the category Virtual and Augmented Reality for other Subway Fold posts on a range of applications of these technologies.

2.  For a report on a recent developments, see A New AI Can Write Music as Well as a Human Composer, by Bartu Kaleagasi, posted on Futurism.com on 3/9/17.

3.  Other examples of VDAs include Apple’s Siri, Google’s Assistant and Microsoft’s Cortana.