Mary Meeker’s 2016 Internet Trends Presentation

"Blue Marble - 2002", Image by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

“Blue Marble – 2002”, Image by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

On June 1, 2016, at the 2016 Code Conference held this week in California, Mary Meeker, a world-renowned Internet expert and partner in the venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins, presented her fifteenth annual in-depth and highly analytical presentation on current Internet trends. It is an absolutely remarkable accomplishment that is highly respected throughout the global technology industry and economy. The video of her speech is available here on Recode.com

Her 2016 Internet Trends presentation file is divided into a series of eight main sections covering, among many other things: Internet user and financial growth rates, online advertising, generational market segments and technological preferences, new products and vendors, mobile screens for nearly everything, e-commerce, big data, privacy issues, video growth on social media platforms, messaging systems , smartphone growth,  voice interfaces, consumer spending, online security, connectivity, Facebook’s v. Google’s growth rates, and massive consumer markets in China and India. That is just the tip of the tip of the iceberg in this 213-slide file.

Ms. Meeker’s assessments and predictions here form an extraordinarily comprehensive and insightful piece of work. There is much here for anyone and everyone to learn and consider in the current and trending states nearly anything and everything online. Moreover, there are likely many potential opportunities for new and established businesses, as well as other institutions, within this file.

I very highly recommend that you set aside some time to thoroughly read through Ms. Meeker’s full presentation. You will be richly rewarded with knowledge and insight that can potentially yield a world of informative and practical dividends.

Digital Smarts Everywhere: The Emergence of Ambient Intelligence

Image from Pixabay

Image from Pixabay

The Troggs were a legendary rock and roll band who were part of the British Invasion in the late 1960’s. They have always been best known for their iconic rocker Wild Thing. This was also the only Top 10 hit that ever had an ocarina solo. How cool is that! The band went on to have two other major hits, With a Girl Like You and Love is All Around.¹

The third of the band’s classic singles can be stretched a bit to be used as a helpful metaphor to describe an emerging form pervasive “all around”-edness, this time in a more technological context. Upon reading a fascinating recent article on TechCrunch.com entitled The Next Stop on the Road to Revolution is Ambient Intelligence, by Gary Grossman, on May 7, 2016, you will find a compelling (but not too rocking) analysis about how the rapidly expanding universe of digital intelligent systems wired into our daily routines is becoming more ubiquitous, unavoidable and ambient each day.

All around indeed. Just as romance can dramatically affect our actions and perspectives, studies now likewise indicate that the relentless global spread of smarter – – and soon thereafter still smarter – – technologies is comparably affecting people’s lives at many different levels.² 

We have followed just a sampling of developments and trends in the related technologies of artificial intelligence, machine learning, expert systems and swarm intelligence in these 15 Subway Fold posts. I believe this new article, adding “ambient intelligence” to the mix, provides a timely opportunity to bring these related domains closer together in terms of their common goals, implementations and benefits. I highly recommend reading Mr. Grossman’s piece it in its entirety.

I will summarize and annotate it, add some additional context, and then pose some of my own Troggs-inspired questions.

Internet of Experiences

Digital this, that and everything is everywhere in today’s world. There is a surging confluence of connected personal and business devices, the Internet, and the Internet of Things (I0T) ³. Woven closely together on a global scale, we have essentially built “a digital intelligence network that transcends all that has gone before”. In some cases, this quantum of advanced technologies gains the “ability to sense, predict and respond to our needs”, and is becoming part of everyone’s “natural behaviors”.

A forth industrial revolution might even manifest itself in the form of machine intelligence whereby we will interact with the “always-on, interconnected world of things”. As a result, the Internet may become characterized more by experiences where users will converse with ambient intelligent systems everywhere. The supporting planks of this new paradigm include:

A prediction of what more fully realized ambient intelligence might look like using travel as an example appeared in an article entitled Gearing Up for Ambient Intelligence, by Lisa Morgan, on InformationWeek.com on March 14, 2016. Upon leaving his or her plane, the traveler will receive a welcoming message and a request to proceed to the curb to retrieve their luggage. Upon reaching curbside, a self-driving car6 will be waiting with information about the hotel booked for the stay.

Listening

Another article about ambient intelligence entitled Towards a World of Ambient Computing, by Simon Bisson, posted on ZDNet.com on February 14, 2014, is briefly quoted for the line “We will talk, and the world will answer”, to illustrate the point that current technology will be morphing into something in the future that would be nearly unrecognizable today. Grossman’s article proceeds to survey a series of commercial technologies recently brought to market as components of a fuller ambient intelligence that will “understand what we are asking” and provide responsive information.

Starting with Amazon’s Echo, this new device can, among other things:

  • Answer certain types of questions
  • Track shopping lists
  • Place orders on Amazon.com
  • Schedule a ride with Uber
  • Operate a thermostat
  • Provide transit schedules
  • Commence short workouts
  • Review recipes
  • Perform math
  • Request a plumber
  • Provide medical advice

Will it be long before we begin to see similar smart devices everywhere in homes and businesses?

Kevin Kelly, the founding Executive Editor of WIRED and a renowned futurist7, believes that in the near future, digital intelligence will become available in the form of a utility8 and, as he puts it “IQ as a service”. This is already being done by Google, Amazon, IBM and Microsoft who are providing open access to sections of their AI coding.9 He believes that success for the next round of startups will go to those who enhance and transforms something already in existence with the addition of AI. The best example of this is once again self-driving cars.

As well, in a chapter on Ambient Computing from a report by Deloitte UK entitled Tech Trends 2015, it was noted that some products were engineering ambient intelligence into their products as a means to remain competitive.

Recommending

A great deal of AI is founded upon the collection of big data from online searching, the use of apps and the IoT. This universe of information supports neural networks learn from repeated behaviors including people’s responses and interests. In turn, it provides a basis for “deep learning-derived personalized information and services” that can, in turn, derive “increasingly educated guesses with any given content”.

An alternative perspective, that “AI is simply the outsourcing of cognition by machines”, has been expressed by Jason Silva, a technologist, philosopher and video blogger on Shots of Awe. He believes that this process is the “most powerful force in the universe”, that is, of intelligence. Nonetheless, he sees this as an evolutionary process which should not be feared. (See also the December 27, 2014 Subway Fold post entitled  Three New Perspectives on Whether Artificial Intelligence Threatens or Benefits the World.)

Bots are another contemporary manifestation of ambient intelligence. These are a form of software agent, driven by algorithms, that can independently perform a range of sophisticated tasks. Two examples include:

Speaking

Optimally, bots should also be able to listen and “speak” back in return much like a 2-way phone conversation. This would also add much-needed context, more natural interactions and “help to refine understanding” to these human/machine exchanges. Such conversations would “become an intelligent and ambient part” of daily life.

An example of this development path is evident in Google Now. This service combines voice search with predictive analytics to present users with information prior to searching. It is an attempt to create an “omniscient assistant” that can reply to any request for information “including those you haven’t thought of yet”.

Recently, the company created a Bluetooth-enable prototype of lapel pin based on this technology that operates just by tapping it much like the communicators on Star Trek. (For more details, see Google Made a Secret Prototype That Works Like the Star Trek Communicator, by Victor Luckerson, on Time.com, posted on November 22, 2015.)

The configurations and specs of AI-powered devices, be it lapel pins, some form of augmented reality10 headsets or something else altogether, supporting such pervasive and ambient intelligence are not exactly clear yet. Their development and introduction will take time but remain inevitable.

Will ambient intelligence make our lives any better? It remains to be seen, but it is probably a viable means to handle some of more our ordinary daily tasks. It will likely “fade into the fabric of daily life” and be readily accessible everywhere.

Quite possibly then, the world will truly become a better place to live upon the arrival of ambient intelligence-enabled ocarina solos.

My Questions

  • Does the emergence of ambient intelligence, in fact, signal the arrival of a genuine fourth industrial revolution or is this all just a semantic tool to characterize a broader spectrum of smarter technologies?
  • How might this trend affect overall employment in terms of increasing or decreasing jobs on an industry by industry basis and/or the entire workforce? (See also this June 4, 2015 Subway Fold post entitled How Robots and Computer Algorithms Are Challenging Jobs and the Economy.)
  • How might this trend also effect non-commercial spheres such as public interest causes and political movements?
  • As ambient intelligence insinuates itself deeper into our online worlds, will this become a principal driver of new entrepreneurial opportunities for startups? Will ambient intelligence itself provide new tools for startups to launch and thrive?

 


1.   Thanks to Little Steven (@StevieVanZandt) for keeping the band’s music in occasional rotation on The Underground Garage  (#UndergroundGarage.) Also, for an appreciation of this radio show see this August 14, 2014 Subway Fold post entitled The Spirit of Rock and Roll Lives on Little Steven’s Underground Garage.

2.  For a remarkably comprehensive report on the pervasiveness of this phenomenon, see the Pew Research Center report entitled U.S. Smartphone Use in 2015, by Aaron Smith, posted on April 1, 2015.

3These 10 Subway Fold posts touch upon the IoT.

4.  The Subway Fold category Big Data and Analytics contains 50 posts cover this topic in whole or in part.

5.  The Subway Fold category Telecommunications contains 12 posts cover this topic in whole or in part.

6These 5 Subway Fold posts contain references to self-driving cars.

7.   Mr. Kelly is also the author of a forthcoming book entitled The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future, to be published on June 7, 2016 by Viking.

8.  This September 1, 2014 Subway Fold post entitled Possible Futures for Artificial Intelligence in Law Practice, in part summarized an article by Steven Levy in the September 2014 issue of WIRED entitled Siri’s Inventors Are Building a Radical New AI That Does Anything You Ask. This covered a startup called Viv Labs whose objective was to transform AI into a form of utility. Fast forward to the Disrupt NY 2016 conference going on in New York last week. On May 9, 2016, the founder of Viv, Dag Kittlaus, gave his presentation about the Viv platform. This was reported in an article posted on TechCrunch.com entitled Siri-creator Shows Off First Public Demo of Viv, ‘the Intelligent Interface for Everything’, by Romain Dillet, on May 9, 2016. The video of this 28-minute presentation is embedded in this story.

9.  For the full details on this story see a recent article entitled The Race Is On to Control Artificial Intelligence, and Tech’s Future by John Markoff and Steve Lohr, published in the March 25, 2016 edition of The New York Times.

10These 10 Subway Fold posts cover some recent trends and development in augmented reality.

“Technographics” – A New Approach for B2B Marketers to Profile Their Customers’ Tech Systems

"Gold Rings - Sphere 1" Image by Linda K

“Gold Rings – Sphere 1” Image by Linda K

Today’s marketing and business development professionals use a wide array of big data collection and analytical tools to create and refine sophisticated profiles of market segments and their customer bases. These are deployed in order to systematically and scientifically target and sell their goods and services in steadily changing marketplaces.

These processes can include, among a multitude of other vast data sets and methodologies, demographics, web user metrics and econometrics. Businesses are always looking for a data-driven edge in highly competitive sectors and such profiling, when done correctly, can be very helpful in detecting and interpreting market trends, and consistently keeping ahead of their rivals. (The Subway Fold category of Big Data and Analytics now contains 50 posts about a variety of trends and applications in this field.)

I will briefly to this add my own long-term yet totally unscientific study of office-mess-ographics. Here I have been looking for any correlation between the relative states of organization – – or entropy – – in people’s offices and their work’s quality and output.  The results still remain inconclusive after years of study.

One of the most brilliant and accomplished people I have ever known had an office that resembled a cave deep in the earth with piles of paper resembling stalagmites all over it. Even more remarkably, he could reach into any one of those piles and pull out exactly the documents he wanted. His work space was so chaotic that there was a long-standing joke that Jimmy Hoffa’s and Judge Crater’s long-lost remains would be found whenever ever he retired and his office was cleaned out.

Speaking of office-focused analytics, an article posted on VentureBeat.com on March 5, 2016, entitled CMOs: ‘Technographics’ is the New Demographics, by Sean Zinsmeister, brought news of a most interesting new trend. I highly recommend reading this in its entirety. I will summarize and add some context to it, and then pose a few question-ographics of my own.

New Analytical Tool for B2B Marketers

Marketers are now using a new methodology call technography to analyze their customers’ “tech stack“, a term of art for the composition of their supporting systems and platforms. The objective of this approach is to deeply understand what this says about them as a company and, moreover, how can this be used in business-to-business (B2B) marketing campaigns. Thus applied, technography can identify “pain points” in products and alleviate them for current and prospective customers.

Using established consumer marketing methods, there is much to be learned and leveraged on how technology is being used by very granular segments of users bases.  For example:

By virtue of this type of technographic data, retailers can target their ads in anticipation of “which customers are most likely to shop in store, online, or via mobile”.

Next, by transposing this form of well-established marketing approach next upon B2B commerce, the objective is to carefully examine the tech stacks of current and future customers in order to gain a marketing advantage. That is, to “inform” a business’s strategy and identify potential new roles and needs to be met. These corporate tech stacks can include systems for:

  • Office productivity
  • Project management
  • Customer relationship management (CRM)
  • Marketing

Gathering and Interpreting Technographic Signals and Nuances

Technographics can provide unique and valuable insights into assessing, for example, whether a customer values scalability or ease-of-use more, and then act upon this.

As well, some of these technographic signals can be indicative of other factors not, per se, directly related to technology. This was the case at Eloqua, a financial technology concern. They noticed their marketing systems have predictive value in determining the company’s best prospects. Furthermore, they determined that companies running their software were inclined “to have a certain level of technological sophistication”, and were often large enough to have the capacity to purchase higher-end systems.

As business systems continually grow in their numbers and complexity, interpreting technographic nuances has also become more of a challenge. Hence, the application of artificial intelligence (AI) can be helpful in detecting additional useful patterns and trends. In a July 2011 TED Talk by Ted Slavin, directly on point here, entitled How Algorithms Shape Our World, he discussed how algorithms and machine learning are needed today to help make sense out of the massive and constantly growing amounts of data. (The Subway Fold category of Smart Systems contains 15 posts covering recent development and applications involving AI and machine learning.)

Technographic Resources and Use Cases

Currently, technographic signals are readily available from various data providers including:

They parse data using such factors as “web hosting, analytics, e-commerce, advertising, or content management platforms”. Another firm called Ghostery has a Chrome browser extension illuminating the technologies upon which any company’s website is built.

The next key considerations are to “define technographic profiles and determine next-best actions” for specific potential customers. For instance, an analytics company called Looker creates “highly targeted campaigns” aimed at businesses who use Amazon Web Services (AWS). The greater the number of marketers who undertake similar pursuits, the more they raise the value of their marketing programs.

Technographics can likewise be applied for competitive leverage in the following use cases:

  • Sales reps prospecting for new leads can be supported with more focused messages for potential new customers. These are shaped by understanding their particular motivations and business challenges.
  • Locating opportunities in new markets can be achieved by assessing the tech stacks of prospective customers. Such analytics can further be used for expanding business development and product development. An example is the online training platform by Mindflash. They detected a potential “demand for a Salesforce training program”. Once it became available, they employed technographic signals to pinpoint customers to whom they could present it.
  • Enterprise wide decision-making benefits can be achieved by adding “value in areas like cultural alignment”. Familiarity with such data for current employees and job seekers can aid businesses with understanding the “technology disposition” of their workers. Thereafter, its alignment with the “customers or partners” can be pursued.  Furthermore, identifying areas where additional training might be needed can help to alleviate productivity issues resulting from “technology disconnects between employees”.

Many businesses are not yet using technographic signals to their full advantage. By increasing such initiatives, businesses can acquire a much deeper understanding of their inherent values. In turn, the resulting insights can have a significant effect on the experiences of their customers and, in turn, elevate their resulting levels of loyalty, retention and revenue, as well as the magnitude of deals done.

My Questions

  • Would professional service industries such as law, medicine and accounting, and the vendors selling within these industries, benefit from integrating technographics into their own business development and marketing efforts?
  • Could there be, now or in the future, an emerging role for dedicated technographics specialists, trainers and consultants? Alternatively, should these new analytics just be treated as another new tool to be learned and implemented by marketers in their existing roles?
  • If a company identifies some of their own employees who might benefit from additional training, how can they be incentivized to participate in it? Could gamification techniques also be applied in creating these training programs?
  • What, if any, privacy concerns might surface in using technographics on potential customer leads and/or a company’s own internal staff?

LinkNYC Rollout Brings Speedy Free WiFi and New Opportunities for Marketers to New York

Link.NYC WiFi Kiosk 5, Image by Alan Rothman

Link.NYC WiFi Kiosk 5, Image by Alan Rothman

Back in the halcyon days of yore before the advent of smartphones and WiFi, there were payphones and phone booths all over of the streets in New York. Most have disappeared, but a few scattered survivors have still managed to hang on. An article entitled And Then There Were Four: Phone Booths Saved on Upper West Side Sidewalks, by Corey Kilgannon, posted on NYTimes.com on February 10, 2016, recounts the stories of some of the last lonely public phones.

Taking their place comes a highly innovative new program called LinkNYC (also @LinkNYC and #LinkNYC). This initiative has just begun to roll out across all five boroughs with a network of what will become thousands of WiFi kiosks providing free and way fast free web access and phone calling, plus a host of other online NYC support services. The kiosks occupy the same physical spaces as the previous payphones.

The first batch of them has started to appear along Third Avenue in Manhattan. I took the photos accompanying this post of one kiosk at the corner of 14th Street and Third Avenue. While standing there, I was able to connect to the web on my phone and try out some of the LinkNYC functions. My reaction: This is very cool beans!

LinkNYC also presents some potentially great new opportunities for marketers. The launch of the program and the companies getting into it on the ground floor were covered in a terrific new article on AdWeek.com on February 15, 2015 entitled What It Means for Consumers and Brands That New York Is Becoming a ‘Smart City’, by Janet Stilson. I recommend reading it in its entirety. I will summarize and annotate it to add some additional context, and pose some of my own ad-free questions.

LinkNYC Set to Proliferate Across NYC

Link.NYC WiFi Kiosk 2, Image by Alan Rothman

Link.NYC WiFi Kiosk 2, Image by Alan Rothman

When completed, LinkNYC will give New York a highly advanced mobile network spanning the entire city. Moreover, it will help to transform it into a very well-wired “smart city“.¹ That is, an urban area comprehensively collecting, analyzing and optimizing vast quantities of data generated by a wide array of sensors and other technologies. It is a network and a host of network effects where a city learns about itself and leverages this knowledge for multiple benefits for it citizenry.²

Beyond mobile devices and advertising, smart cities can potentially facilitate many other services. The consulting firm Frost & Sullivan predicts that there will be 26 smart cities across the globe during by 2025. Currently, everyone is looking to NYC to see how the implementation of LinkNYC works out.

According to Mike Gamaroff, the head of innovation in the New York office of Kinetic Active a global media and marketing firm, LinkNYC is primarily a “utility” for New Yorkers as well as “an advertising network”. Its throughput rates are at gigabit speeds thereby making it the fastest web access available when compared to large commercial ISP’s average rates of merely 20 to 30 megabits.

Nick Cardillicchio, a strategic account manager at Civiq Smartscapes, the designer and manufacturer of the LinkNYC kiosks, said that LinkNYC is the only place where consumers can access the Net at such speeds. For the AdWeek.com article, he took the writer, Janet Stilson, on a tour of the kiosks include the one at Third Avenue and 14th Street, where one of the first ones is in place. (Coincidentally, this is the same kiosk I photographed for this post.)

There are a total of 16 currently operational for the initial testing. The WiFi web access is accessible with 150 feet of the kiosk and can range up to 400 feet. Perhaps those New Yorkers actually living within this range will soon no longer need their commercial ISPs.

Link.NYC WiFi Kiosk 4, Image by Alan Rothman

Link.NYC WiFi Kiosk 4, Image by Alan Rothman

The initial advertisers appearing in rotation on the large digital screen include Poland Spring (see the photo at the right), MillerCoors, Pager and Citibank. Eventually “smaller tablet screens” will be added to enable users to make free domestic voice or video calls. As well, they will present maps, local activities and emergency information in and about NYC. Users will also be able to charge up their mobile devices.

However, it is still too soon to assess and quantify the actual impact on such providers. According to David Krupp, CEO, North America, for Kinetic, neither Poland Spring nor MillerCoors has produced an adequate amount of data to yet analyze their respective LinkNYC ad campaigns. (Kinetic is involved in supporting marketing activities.)

Commercializing the Kiosks

The organization managing LinkNYC, the CityBridge consortium (consisting of Qualcomm, Intersection, and Civiq Smartscapes) , is not yet indicating when the new network will progress into a more “commercial stage”. However, once the network is fully implemented with the next few years, the number of kiosks might end up being somewhere between 75,000 and 10,000. That would make it the largest such network in the world.

CityBridge is also in charge of all the network’s advertising sales. These revenues will be split with the city. Under the 12-year contract now in place, this arrangement is predicted to produce $500M for NYC, with positive cash flow anticipated within 5 years. Brad Gleeson, the chief commercial officer at Civiq, said this project depends upon the degree to which LinkNYC is “embraced by Madison Avenue” and the time need for the network to reach “critical mass”.

Because of the breadth and complexity of this project, achieving this inflection point will be quite challenging according to David Etherington, the chief strategy officer at Intersection. He expressed his firm’s “dreams and aspirations” for LinkNYC, including providing advertisers with “greater strategic and creative flexibility”, offering such capabilities as:

  • Dayparting  – dividing a day’s advertising into several segments dependent on a range of factors about the intended audience, and
  • Hypertargeting – delivering advertising to very highly defined segments of an audience

Barry Frey, the president and CEO of the Digital Place-based Advertising Association, was also along for the tour of the new kiosks on Third Avenue. He was “impressed” by the capability it will offer advertisers to “co-locate their signs and fund services to the public” for such services as free WiFi and long-distance calling.

As to the brand marketers:

  • MillerCoors is using information at each kiosk location from Shazam, for the company’s “Sounds of the Street” ad campaign which presents “lists of the most-Shazammed tunes in the area”. (For more about Shazam, see the December 10, 2014 Subway Fold post entitled Is Big Data Calling and Calculating the Tune in Today’s Global Music Market?)
  • Poland Spring is now running a 5-week campaign featuring a digital ad (as seen in the third photo above). It relies upon “the brand’s popularity in New York”.

Capturing and Interpreting the Network’s Data

Link.NYC WiFi Kiosk 1, Image by Alan Rothman

Link.NYC WiFi Kiosk 1, Image by Alan Rothman

Thus far, LinkNYC has been “a little vague” about its methods for capturing the network’s data, but has said that it will maintain the privacy of all consumers’ information. One source has indicated that LinkNYC will collect, among other points “age, gender and behavioral data”. As well, the kiosks can track mobile devices within its variably 150 to 400 WiFi foot radius to ascertain the length of time a user stops by.  Third-party data is also being added to “round out the information”.³

Some industry experts’ expectations of the value and applications of this data include:

  • Helma Larkin, the CEO of Posterscope, a New York based firm specializing in “out-of- home communications (OOH)“, believes that LinkNYC is an entirely “new out-of-home medium”. This is because the data it will generate “will enhance the media itself”. The LinkNYC initiative presents an opportunity to build this network “from the ground up”. It will also create an opportunity to develop data about its own audience.
  • David Krupp of Kinetic thinks that data that will be generated will be quite meaningful insofar as producing a “more hypertargeted connection to consumers”.

Other US and International Smart City Initiatives

Currently in the US, there is nothing else yet approaching the scale of LinkNYC. Nonetheless, Kansas City is now developing a “smaller advertiser-supported  network of kiosks” with wireless support from Sprint. Other cities are also working on smart city projects. Civiq is now in discussions with about 20 of them.

Internationally, Rio de Janeiro is working on a smart city program in conjunction with the 2016 Olympics. This project is being supported by Renato Lucio de Castro, a consultant on smart city projects. (Here is a brief video of him describing this undertaking.)

A key challenge facing all smart city projects is finding officials in local governments who likewise have the enthusiasm for efforts like LinkNYC. Michael Lake, the CEO of Leading Cities, a firm that help cities with smart city projects, believes that programs such as LinkNYC will “continue to catch on” because of the additional security benefits they provide and the revenues they can generate.

My Questions

  • Should domestic and international smart cities to cooperate to share their resources, know-how and experience for each other’s mutual benefit? Might this in some small way help to promote urban growth and development on a more cooperative global scale?
  • Should LinkNYC also consider offering civic support services such as voter registration or transportation scheduling apps as well as charitable functions where pedestrians can donate to local causes?
  • Should LinkNYC add some augmented reality capabilities to enhance the data capabilities and displays of the kiosks? (See these 10 Subway Fold posts covering a range of news and trends on this technology.)

February 19, 2017 Update:  For the latest status report on LinkNYC nearly a year after this post was first uploaded, please see After Controversy, LinkNYC Finds Its Niche, by Gerald Schifman, on CrainsNewYork.com, dated February 15, 2017.


1.   While Googling “smart cities” might nearly cause the Earth to shift off its axis with its resulting 70 million hits, I suggest reading a very informative and timely feature from the December 11, 2015 edition of The Wall Street Journal entitled As World Crowds In, Cities Become Digital Laboratories, by Robert Lee Hotz.

2.   Smart Cities: Big Data, Civic Hackers, and the Quest for a New Utopia (W. W. Norton & Company, 2013), by Anthony M. Townsend, is a deep and wide book-length exploration of how big data and analytics are being deployed in large urban areas by local governments and independent citizens. I very highly recommend reading this fascinating exploration of the nearly limitless possibilities for smart cities.

3.   See, for example, How Publishers Utilize Big Data for Audience Segmentation, by Arvid Tchivzhel, posted on Datasciencecentral.com on November 17, 2015


These items just in from the Pop Culture Department: It would seem nearly impossible to film an entire movie thriller about a series of events centered around a public phone, but a movie called – – not so surprisingly – – Phone Booth managed to do this quite effectively in 2002. It stared Colin Farrell, Kiefer Sutherland and Forest Whitaker. Imho, it is still worth seeing.

Furthermore, speaking of Kiefer Sutherland, Fox announced on January 15, 2016 that it will be making 24: Legacy, a complete reboot of the 24 franchise, this time without him playing Jack Bauer. Rather, they have cast Corey Hawkins in the lead role. Hawkins can now be seen doing an excellent job playing Heath on season 6 of The Walking Dead. Watch out Grimes Gang, here comes Negan!!


Movie Review of “The Human Face of Big Data”

"Blue and Pink Fractal", Image by dev Moore

“Blue and Pink Fractal”, Image by dev Moore

What does big data look like, anyway?

To try to find out, I was very fortunate to have obtained a pass to see a screening of a most enlightening new documentary called The Human Face of Big Data. The event was held on October 20, 2015 at Civic Hall in the Flatiron District in New York.

The film’s executive producer, Rick Smolan, (@ricksmolan), first made some brief introductory remarks about his professional work and the film we were about to see. Among his many accomplishments as a photographer and writer, he was the originator and driving force behind the A Day in the Life series of books where teams of photographers were dispatched to take pictures of different countries for each volume in such places as, among others, the United States, Japan and Spain.

He also added a whole new meaning to a having a hand in casting in his field by explaining to the audience that he had recently fallen from a try on his son’s scooter and hence his right hand was in a cast.

As the lights were dimmed and the film began, someone sitting right in front of me did something that was also, quite literally, enlightening but clearly in the wrong place and at the wrong time by opening up a laptop with a large and very bright screen. This was very distracting so I quickly switched seats. In retrospect, doing so also had the unintentional effect of providing me with a metaphor for the film: From my new perspective in the auditorium, I was seeing a movie that was likewise providing me with a whole new perspective on this important subject.

This film proceeded to provide an engrossing and informative examination of what exactly is “big data”, how it is gathered and analyzed, and its relative virtues and drawbacks.¹ It accomplished all of this by addressing these angles with segments of detailed expositions intercut with interviews of leading experts. In his comments afterwards, Mr. Smolan described big data as becoming a form of “nervous system” currently threading out across our entire planet.

Other documentarians could learn much from his team’s efforts as they smartly surveyed the Big Dataverse while economically compressing their production into a very compact and efficient package. Rather than a paint by, well, numbers production with overly long technical excursions, they deftly brought their subject to life with some excellent composition and editing of a wealth of multimedia content.

All of the film’s topics and transitions between them were appreciable evenhanded. Some segments specifically delved into how big data systems vacuum up this quantum of information and how it positively and negatively affects consumers and other demographic populations. Other passages raised troubling concerns about the loss of personal privacy in recent revelations concerning the electronic operations conducted by the government and the private sector.

I found the most compelling part of the film to be an interview with Dr. Eric Topol, (@EricTopol), a leading proponent of digital medicine, using smart phones as a medical information platform, and empowering patients to take control of their own medical data.² He spoke about the significance of the massive quantities and online availability of medical data and what this transformation  mean to everyone. His optimism and insights about big data having a genuine impact upon the quality of life for people across the globe was representative of this movie’s measured balance between optimism and caution.

This movie’s overall impression analogously reminded me of the promotional sponges that my local grocery used to hand out.  When you returned home and later added a few drops of water to these very small, flat and dried out novelties, they quickly and voluminously expanded. So too, here in just a 52-minute film, Mr. Smolan and his team have assembled a far-reaching and compelling view of the rapidly expanding parsecs of big data. All the audience needed to access, comprehend and soak up all of this rich subject matter was an open mind to new ideas.

Mr. Smolan returned to the stage after the movie ended to graciously and enthusiastically answer questions from the audience. It was clear from the comments and questions that nearly everyone there, whether they were familiar or unfamiliar with big data, had greatly enjoyed this cinematic tour of this subject and its implications. The audience’s well-informed inquiries concerned the following topics:

  • the ethics and security of big data collection
  • the degrees to which science fiction is now become science fact
  • the emergence and implications of virtual reality and augment reality with respect to entertainment and the role of big data in these productions³
  • the effects and influences of big data in medicine, law and other professions
  • the applications of big data towards extending human lifespans

Mr. Smolan also mentioned that his film will be shown on PBS in 2016. When it becomes scheduled, I very highly recommend setting some time aside to view it in its entirety.

Big data’s many conduits, trends, policies and impacts relentlessly continue to extend their global grasp. The Human Face of Big Data delivers a fully realized and expertly produced means for comprehending and evaluating this crucial and unavoidable phenomenon. This documentary is a lot to absorb yet an apt (and indeed fully app-ed), place to start.

 


One of the premiere online resources for anything and everything about movies is IMDB.com. It has just reached its 25th anniversary which was celebrated in a post in VentureBeat.com on October 30, 2015, entitled 25 Years of IMDb, the World’s Biggest Online Movie Database by Paul Sawers.


1These 44 Subway Fold Posts covered many of the latest developments in different fields, marketplaces and professions in the category of Big Data and Analytics.

2.  See also this March 3, 2015 Subway Fold post reviewing Dr. Topol’s latest book, entitled Book Review of “The Patient Will See You Now”.

3These 11 Subway Fold Posts cover many of the latest developments in the arts, sciences, and media industries in the category of Virtual and Augmented Reality. For two of the latest examples, see an article from the October 20, 2015 edition of The New York Times entitled The Times Partners With Google on Virtual Reality Project by Ravi Somaiya, and an article on Fortune.com on September 27, 2015 entitled Oculus Teams Up with 20th Century Fox to Bring Virtual Reality to Movies by Michael Addady. (I’m just speculating here, but perhaps The Human Face of Big Data would be well-suited for VR formatting and audience immersion.)

Data Analysis and Visualizations of All U.S. Presidential State of the Union Addresses

"President Obama's State of the Union Address 2013", Word cloud image by Kurtis Garbutt

“President Obama’s State of the Union Address 2013”, Word cloud image by Kurtis Garbutt

While data analytics and visualization tools have accumulated a significant historical record of accomplishments, now, in turn, this technology is being applied to actual significant historical accomplishments. Let’s have a look.

Every year in January, the President of the United States gives the State of the Union speech before both houses of the U.S. Congress. This is to address the condition of the nation, his legislative agenda and other national priorities. The requirement for this presentation appears in Article II of the U.S. Constitution.

This talk with the nation has been given every year (with only one exception), since 1790. The resulting total of 224 speeches presents a remarkable and dynamic historical record of U.S. history and policy. Researchers at Columbia University and the University of Paris have recently applied sophisticated data analytics and visualization tools to this trove of presidential addresses. Their findings were published in the August 10, 2015 edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in a truly fascinating paper entitled Lexical Shifts, Substantive Changes, and Continuity in State of the Union Discourse, 1790–2014, by Alix Rule, Jean-Philippe Cointet, and Peter S. Bearman.

A very informative and concise summary of this paper was also posted in an article on Phys.org, also on August 10, 2015, entitled in a post entitled Big Data Analysis of State of the Union Remarks Changes View of American History, (no author is listed). I will summarize, annotate and post a few questions of my own. I highly recommend clicking through and reading the full report and the summary article together for a fuller perspective on this achievement. (Similar types of textual and graphical analyses of US law were covered in the May 15, 2015 Subway Fold post entitled Recent Visualization Projects Involving US Law and The Supreme Court.)

The researchers developed custom algorithms for their research. They were applied to the total number of words used in all of the addresses, from 1790 to 2014, of 1.8 million.  By identifying the frequencies of “how often words appear jointly” and “mapping their relation to other clusters of words”, the team was able to highlight “dominant social and political” issues and their relative historical time frames. (See Figure 1 at the bottom of Page 2 of the full report for this lexigraphical mapping.)

One of the researchers’ key findings was that although the topics of “industry, finance, and foreign policy” were predominant and persist throughout all of the addresses, following World War II the recurring keywords focus further upon “nation building, the regulation of business and the financing of public infrastructure”. While it is well know that these emergent terms were all about modern topics, the researchers were thus able to pinpoint the exact time frames when they first appeared. (See Page 5 of the full report for the graphic charting these data trends.)

Foreign Policy Patters

The year 1917 struck the researchers as a critical turning point because it represented a dramatic shift in the data containing words indicative of more modern times. This was the year that the US sent its troops into battle in Europe in WWI. It was then that new keywords in the State of the Union including “democracy,” “unity,” “peace” and “terror” started to appear and recur. Later, by the 1940’s, word clusters concerning the Navy appeared, possibly indicating emerging U.S. isolationism. However, they suddenly disappeared again as the U.S. became far more involved in world events.

Domestic Policy Patterns

Over time, the researchers identified changes in the terminology used when addressing domestic matters. These concerned the government’s size, economic regulation, and equal opportunity. Although the focus of the State of the Union speeches remained constant, new keywords appeared whereby “tax relief,” “incentives” and “welfare” have replaced “Treasury,” “amount” and “expenditures”.

An important issue facing this project was that during the more than two centuries being studied, keywords could substantially change in meaning over time. To address this, the researchers applied new network analysis methods developed by Jean-Philippe Cointet, a team member, co-author and physicist at the University of Paris. They were intended to identify changes whereby “some political topics morph into similar topics with common threads” as others fade away. (See Figure 3 at the bottom of Page 4 of the full paper for this enlightening graphic.*)

As a result, they were able to parse the relative meanings of words as they appear with each other and, on a more macro level, in the “context of evolving topics”. For example, it was discovered that the word “Constitution” was:

  • closely associated with the word “people” in early U.S. history
  • linked to “state” following the Civil War
  • linked to “law” during WWI and WWII, and
  • returned to “people” during the 1970’s

Thus, the meaning of “Constitution” must be assessed in its historical context.

My own questions are as follows:

  • Would this analytical approach yield new and original insights if other long-running historical records such as the Congressional Record were like subject to the research team’s algorithms and analytics?
  • Could companies and other commercial businesses derive any benefits from having their historical records similarly analyzed? For example, might it yield new insights and recommendations for corporate governance and information governance policies and procedures?
  • Could this methodology be used as an electronic discovery tool for litigators as they parse corporate documents produced during a case?

 


*  This is also resembles the methodology and appearance to the graphic on Page 29 of the law review article entitled A Quantitative Analysis of the Writing Style of the U.S. Supreme Court, by Keith Carlson, Michael A. Livermore, and Daniel Rockmore, Dated March 11, 2015, linked to and discussed with the May 15, 2015 Subway Fold post cited above.

Watson, is That You? Yes, and I’ve Just Demo-ed My Analytics Skills at IBM’s New York Office

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My photo of the entrance to IBM’s office at 590 Madison Avenue in New York, taken on July 29, 2015.

I don’t know if my heart can take this much excitement. Yesterday morning, on July 29, 2015, I attended a very compelling presentation and demo of IBM’s Watson technology. (This AI-driven platform has been previously covered in these five Subway Fold posts.) Just the night before, I saw I saw a demo of some ultra-cool new augmented reality systems.

These experiences combined to make me think of the evocative line from Supernaut by Black Sabbath with Ozzie belting out “I’ve seen the future and I’ve left it behind”. (Incidentally, this prehistoric metal classic also has, IMHO, one of the most infectious guitar riffs with near warp speed shredding ever recorded.)

Yesterday’s demo of Watson Analytics, one key component among several on the platform, was held at IBM’s office in the heart of midtown Manhattan at 590 Madison Avenue and 57th Street. The company very graciously put this on for free. All three IBM employees who spoke were outstanding in their mastery of the technology, enthusiasm for its capabilities, and informative Q&A interactions with the audience. Massive kudos to everyone involved at the company in making this happen. Thanks, too, for all of attendees who asked such excellent questions.

Here is my summary of the event:

Part 1: What is Watson Analytics?

The first two speakers began with a fundamental truth about all organizations today: They have significant quantities of data that are driving all operations. However, a bottleneck often occurs when business users understand this but do not have the technical skills to fully leverage it while, correspondingly, IT workers do not always understand the business context of the data. As a result, business users have avenues they can explore but not the best or most timely means to do so.

This is where Watson can be introduced because it can make these business users self-sufficient with an accessible, extensible and easier to use analytics platform. It is, as one the speakers said “self-service analytics in the cloud”. Thus, Watson’s constituents can be seen as follows:

  • “What” is how to discover and define business problems.
  • “Why” is to understand the existence and nature of these problems.
  • “How” is to share this process in order to affect change.

However, Watson is specifically not intended to be a replacement for IT in any way.

Also, one of Watson’s key capabilities is enabling users to pursue their questions by using a natural language dialog. This involves querying Watson with questions posed in ordinary spoken terms.

Part 2: A Real World Demo Using Airline Customer Data

Taken directly from the world of commerce, the IBM speakers presented a demo of Watson Analytics’ capabilities by using a hypothetical situation in the airline industry. This involved a business analyst in the marketing department for an airline who was given a compilation of market data prepared by a third-party vendor. The business analyst was then assigned by his manager with researching and planning how to reduce customer churn.

Next, by enlisting Watson Analytics for this project, the two central issues became how the data could be:

  • Better understand, leveraged and applied to increase customers’ positive opinions while simultaneously decreasing the defections to the airline’s competitors.
  • Comprehensively modeled in order to understand the elements of the customer base’s satisfaction, or lack thereof, with the airline’s services.

The speakers then put Watson Analytics through its paces up on large screens for the audience to observe and ask questions. The goal of this was to demonstrate how the business analyst could query Watson Analytics and, in turn, the system would provide alternative paths to explore the data in search of viable solutions.

Included among the variables that were dexterously tested and spun into enlightening interactive visualizations were:

  • Satisfaction levels by other peer airlines and the hypothetical Watson customer airline
  • Why customers are, and are not, satisfied with their travel experience
  • Airline “status” segments such as “platinum” level flyers who pay a premium for additional select services
  • Types of travel including for business and vacation
  • Other customer demographic points

This results of this exercise as they appeared onscreen showed how Watson could, with its unique architecture and tool set:

  • Generate “guided suggestions” using natural language dialogs
  • Identify and test all manner of connections among the population of data
  • Use predictive analytics to make business forecasts¹
  • Calculate a “data quality score” to assess the quality of the data upon which business decisions are based
  • Map out a wide variety of data dashboards and reports to view and continually test the data in an effort to “tell a story”
  • Integrate an extensible set of analytical and graphics tools to sift through large data sets from relevant Twitter streams²

Part 3: The Development Roadmap

The third and final IBM speaker outlined the following paths for Watson Analytics that are currently in beta stage development:

  • User engagement developers are working on an updated visual engine, increased connectivity and capabilities for mobile devices, and social media commentary.
  • Collaboration developers are working on accommodating work groups and administrators, and dashboards that can be filtered and distributed.
  • Data connector developers are working on new data linkages, improving the quality and shape of connections, and increasing the degrees of confidence in predictions. For example, a connection to weather data is underway that would be very helpful to the airline (among other industries), in the above hypothetical.
  • New analytics developers are working on new functionality for business forecasting, time series analyses, optimization, and social media analytics.

Everyone in the audience, judging by the numerous informal conversations that quickly formed in the follow-up networking session, left with much to consider about the potential applications of this technology.


1.  Please see these six Subway Fold posts covering predictive analytics in other markets.

2.  Please see these ten Subway Fold posts for a variety of other applications of Twitter analytics.