Digital Smarts Everywhere: The Emergence of Ambient Intelligence

Image from Pixabay

Image from Pixabay

The Troggs were a legendary rock and roll band who were part of the British Invasion in the late 1960’s. They have always been best known for their iconic rocker Wild Thing. This was also the only Top 10 hit that ever had an ocarina solo. How cool is that! The band went on to have two other major hits, With a Girl Like You and Love is All Around.¹

The third of the band’s classic singles can be stretched a bit to be used as a helpful metaphor to describe an emerging form pervasive “all around”-edness, this time in a more technological context. Upon reading a fascinating recent article on TechCrunch.com entitled The Next Stop on the Road to Revolution is Ambient Intelligence, by Gary Grossman, on May 7, 2016, you will find a compelling (but not too rocking) analysis about how the rapidly expanding universe of digital intelligent systems wired into our daily routines is becoming more ubiquitous, unavoidable and ambient each day.

All around indeed. Just as romance can dramatically affect our actions and perspectives, studies now likewise indicate that the relentless global spread of smarter – – and soon thereafter still smarter – – technologies is comparably affecting people’s lives at many different levels.² 

We have followed just a sampling of developments and trends in the related technologies of artificial intelligence, machine learning, expert systems and swarm intelligence in these 15 Subway Fold posts. I believe this new article, adding “ambient intelligence” to the mix, provides a timely opportunity to bring these related domains closer together in terms of their common goals, implementations and benefits. I highly recommend reading Mr. Grossman’s piece it in its entirety.

I will summarize and annotate it, add some additional context, and then pose some of my own Trogg-inspired questions.

Internet of Experiences

Digital this, that and everything is everywhere in today’s world. There is a surging confluence of connected personal and business devices, the Internet, and the Internet of Things (I0T) ³. Woven closely together on a global scale, we have essentially built “a digital intelligence network that transcends all that has gone before”. In some cases, this quantum of advanced technologies gains the “ability to sense, predict and respond to our needs”, and is becoming part of everyone’s “natural behaviors”.

A forth industrial revolution might even manifest itself in the form of machine intelligence whereby we will interact with the “always-on, interconnected world of things”. As a result, the Internet may become characterized more by experiences where users will converse with ambient intelligent systems everywhere. The supporting planks of this new paradigm include:

A prediction of what more fully realized ambient intelligence might look like using travel as an example appeared in an article entitled Gearing Up for Ambient Intelligence, by Lisa Morgan, on InformationWeek.com on March 14, 2016. Upon leaving his or her plane, the traveler will receive a welcoming message and a request to proceed to the curb to retrieve their luggage. Upon reaching curbside, a self-driving car6 will be waiting with information about the hotel booked for the stay.

Listening

Another article about ambient intelligence entitled Towards a World of Ambient Computing, by Simon Bisson, posted on ZDNet.com on February 14, 2014, is briefly quoted for the line “We will talk, and the world will answer”, to illustrate the point that current technology will be morphing into something in the future that would be nearly unrecognizable today. Grossman’s article proceeds to survey a series of commercial technologies recently brought to market as components of a fuller ambient intelligence that will “understand what we are asking” and provide responsive information.

Starting with Amazon’s Echo, this new device can, among other things:

  • Answer certain types of questions
  • Track shopping lists
  • Place orders on Amazon.com
  • Schedule a ride with Uber
  • Operate a thermostat
  • Provide transit schedules
  • Commence short workouts
  • Review recipes
  • Perform math
  • Request a plumber
  • Provide medical advice

Will it be long before we begin to see similar smart devices everywhere in homes and businesses?

Kevin Kelly, the founding Executive Editor of WIRED and a renowned futurist7, believes that in the near future, digital intelligence will become available in the form of a utility8 and, as he puts it “IQ as a service”. This is already being done by Google, Amazon, IBM and Microsoft who are providing open access to sections of their AI coding.9 He believes that success for the next round of startups will go to those who enhance and transforms something already in existence with the addition of AI. The best example of this is once again self-driving cars.

As well, in a chapter on Ambient Computing from a report by Deloitte UK entitled Tech Trends 2015, it was noted that some products were engineering ambient intelligence into their products as a means to remain competitive.

Recommending

A great deal of AI is founded upon the collection of big data from online searching, the use of apps and the IoT. This universe of information supports neural networks learn from repeated behaviors including people’s responses and interests. In turn, it provides a basis for “deep learning-derived personalized information and services” that can, in turn, derive “increasingly educated guesses with any given content”.

An alternative perspective, that “AI is simply the outsourcing of cognition by machines”, has been expressed by Jason Silva, a technologist, philosopher and video blogger on Shots of Awe. He believes that this process is the “most powerful force in the universe”, that is, of intelligence. Nonetheless, he sees this as an evolutionary process which should not be feared. (See also the December 27, 2014 Subway Fold post entitled  Three New Perspectives on Whether Artificial Intelligence Threatens or Benefits the World.)

Bots are another contemporary manifestation of ambient intelligence. These are a form of software agent, driven by algorithms, that can independently perform a range of sophisticated tasks. Two examples include:

Speaking

Optimally, bots should also be able to listen and “speak” back in return much like a 2-way phone conversation. This would also add much-needed context, more natural interactions and “help to refine understanding” to these human/machine exchanges. Such conversations would “become an intelligent and ambient part” of daily life.

An example of this development path is evident in Google Now. This service combines voice search with predictive analytics to present users with information prior to searching. It is an attempt to create an “omniscient assistant” that can reply to any request for information “including those you haven’t thought of yet”.

Recently, the company created a Bluetooth-enable prototype of lapel pin based on this technology that operates just by tapping it much like the communicators on Star Trek. (For more details, see Google Made a Secret Prototype That Works Like the Star Trek Communicator, by Victor Luckerson, on Time.com, posted on November 22, 2015.)

The configurations and specs of AI-powered devices, be it lapel pins, some form of augmented reality10 headsets or something else altogether, supporting such pervasive and ambient intelligence are not exactly clear yet. Their development and introduction will take time but remain inevitable.

Will ambient intelligence make our lives any better? It remains to be seen, but it is probably a viable means to handle some of more our ordinary daily tasks. It will likely “fade into the fabric of daily life” and be readily accessible everywhere.

Quite possibly then, the world will truly become a better place to live upon the arrival of ambient intelligence-enabled ocarina solos.

My Questions

  • Does the emergence of ambient intelligence, in fact, signal the arrival of a genuine fourth industrial revolution or is this all just a semantic tool to characterize a broader spectrum of smarter technologies?
  • How might this trend affect overall employment in terms of increasing or decreasing jobs on an industry by industry basis and/or the entire workforce? (See also this June 4, 2015 Subway Fold post entitled How Robots and Computer Algorithms Are Challenging Jobs and the Economy.)
  • How might this trend also effect non-commercial spheres such as public interest causes and political movements?
  • As ambient intelligence insinuates itself deeper into our online worlds, will this become a principal driver of new entrepreneurial opportunities for startups? Will ambient intelligence itself provide new tools for startups to launch and thrive?

 


1.   Thanks to Little Steven (@StevieVanZandt) for keeping the band’s music in occasional rotation on The Underground Garage  (#UndergroundGarage.) Also, for an appreciation of this radio show see this August 14, 2014 Subway Fold post entitled The Spirit of Rock and Roll Lives on Little Steven’s Underground Garage.

2.  For a remarkably comprehensive report on the pervasiveness of this phenomenon, see the Pew Research Center report entitled U.S. Smartphone Use in 2015, by Aaron Smith, posted on April 1, 2015.

3These 10 Subway Fold posts touch upon the IoT.

4.  The Subway Fold category Big Data and Analytics contains 50 posts cover this topic in whole or in part.

5.  The Subway Fold category Telecommunications contains 12 posts cover this topic in whole or in part.

6These 5 Subway Fold posts contain references to self-driving cars.

7.   Mr. Kelly is also the author of a forthcoming book entitled The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future, to be published on June 7, 2016 by Viking.

8.  This September 1, 2014 Subway Fold post entitled Possible Futures for Artificial Intelligence in Law Practice, in part summarized an article by Steven Levy in the September 2014 issue of WIRED entitled Siri’s Inventors Are Building a Radical New AI That Does Anything You Ask. This covered a startup called Viv Labs whose objective was to transform AI into a form of utility. Fast forward to the Disrupt NY 2016 conference going on in New York last week. On May 9, 2016, the founder of Viv, Dag Kittlaus, gave his presentation about the Viv platform. This was reported in an article posted on TechCrunch.com entitled Siri-creator Shows Off First Public Demo of Viv, ‘the Intelligent Interface for Everything’, by Romain Dillet, on May 9, 2016. The video of this 28-minute presentation is embedded in this story.

9.  For the full details on this story see a recent article entitled The Race Is On to Control Artificial Intelligence, and Tech’s Future by John Markoff and Steve Lohr, published in the March 25, 2016 edition of The New York Times.

10These 10 Subway Fold posts cover some recent trends and development in augmented reality.

New Startup’s Legal Research App is Driven by Watson’s AI Technology

"Supreme Court, 60 Centre Street, Lower Manhattan", Image by Jeffrey Zeldman

[New York] “Supreme Court, 60 Centre Street, Lower Manhattan”, Image by Jeffrey Zeldman

May 9, 2016: An update on this post appears below.


Casey Stengel had a very long, productive and colorful career in professional baseball as a player for five teams and later as a manager for four teams. He was also consistently quotable (although not to the extraordinary extent of his Yankee teammate Yogi Berra). Among the many things Casey said was his frequent use of the imperative “You could look it up”¹.

Transposing this gem of wisdom from baseball to law practice², looking something up has recently taken on an entirely new meaning. According to a fascinating article posted on Wired.com on August 8, 2015 entitled Your Lawyer May Soon Ask for This AI-Powered App for Legal Help by Davey Alba, a startup called ROSS Intelligence has created a unique new system for legal research. I will summarize, annotate and pose a few questions of my own.

One of the founders of ROSS, Jimoh Ovbiagele (@findingjimoh), was influenced by his childhood and adolescent experiences to pursue studying either law or computer science. He chose the latter and eventually ended up working on an artificial intelligence (AI) project at the University of Toronto. It occurred to him then that machine learning (a branch of AI), would be a helpful means to assist lawyers with their daily research requirements.

Mr. Ovbiagele joined with a group of co-founders from diverse fields including “law to computers to neuroscience” in order to launch ROSS Intelligence. The legal research app they have created is built upon the AI capabilities of IBM’s Watson as well as voice recognition. Since June, it has been tested in “small-scale pilot programs inside law firms”.

AI, machine learning, and IBM’s Watson technology have been variously taken up in these nine Subway Fold posts. Among them, the September 1, 2014 post entitled Possible Futures for Artificial Intelligence in Law Practice covered the possible legal applications of IBM’s Watson (prior to the advent of ROSS), and the technology of a startup called Viv Labs.

Essentially, the new ROSS app enables users to ask legal research questions in natural language. (See also the July 31, 2015 Subway Fold post entitled Watson, is That You? Yes, and I’ve Just Demo-ed My Analytics Skills at IBM’s New York Office.) Similar in operation to Apple’s Siri, when a question is verbally posed to ROSS, it searches through its data base of legal documents to provide an answer along with the source documents used to derive it. The reply is also assessed and assigned a “confidence rating”. The app further prompts the user to evaluate the response’s accuracy with an onscreen “thumbs up” or “thumbs down”. The latter will prompt ROSS to produce another result.

Andrew Arruda (@AndrewArruda), another co-founder of ROSS, described the development process as beginning with a “blank slate” version of Watson into which they uploaded “thousands of pages of legal documents”, and trained their system to make use of Watson’s “question-and-answer APIs³. Next, they added machine learning capabilities they called “LegalRank” (a reference to Google’s PageRank algorithm), which, among others things, designates preferential results depending upon the supporting documents’ numbers of citations and the deciding courts’ jurisdiction.

ROSS is currently concentrating on bankruptcy and insolvency issues. Mr. Ovbiagele and Mr. Arruda are sanguine about the possibilities of adding other practice areas to its capabilities. Furthermore, they believe that this would meaningfully reduce the $9.6 billion annually spent on legal research, some of which is presently being outsourced to other countries.

In another recent and unprecedented development, the global law firm Dentons has formed its own incubator for legal technology startups called NextLaw Labs. According to this August 7, 2015 news release on Denton’s website, the first company they have signed up for their portfolio is ROSS Intelligence.

Although it might be too early to exclaim “You could look it up” at this point, my own questions are as follows:

  • What pricing model(s) will ROSS use to determine the cost structure of their service?
  • Will ROSS consider making its app available to public interest attorneys and public defenders who might otherwise not have the resources to pay for access fees?
  • Will ROSS consider making their service available to the local, state and federal courts?
  • Should ROSS make their service available to law schools or might this somehow impair their traditional teaching of the fundamentals of legal research?
  • Will ROSS consider making their service available to non-lawyers in order to assist them in represent themselves on a pro se basis?
  • In addition to ROSS, what other entrepreneurial opportunities exist for other legal startups to deploy Watson technology?

Finally, for an excellent roundup of five recent articles and blog posts about the prospects of Watson for law practice, I highly recommend a click-through to read Five Solid Links to Get Smart on What Watson Means for Legal, by Frank Strong, posted on The Business of Law Blog on August 11, 2015.


May 9, 2016 Update:  The global law firm of Baker & Hostetler, headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio, has become the first US AmLaw 100 firm to announce that it has licensed the ROSS Intelligence’s AI product for its bankruptcy practice. The full details on this were covered in an article posted on May 6, 2016 entitled AI Pioneer ROSS Intelligence Lands Its First Big Law Clients by Susan Beck, on Law.com.

Some follow up questions:

  • Will other large law firms, as well as medium and smaller firms, and in-house corporate departments soon be following this lead?
  • Will they instead wait and see whether this produces tangible results for attorneys and their clients?
  • If so, what would these results look like in terms of the quality of legal services rendered, legal business development, client satisfaction, and/or the incentives for other legal startups to move into the legal AI space?

1.  This was also the title of one of his many biographies,  written by Maury Allen, published Times Books in 1979.

2.  For the best of both worlds, see the legendary law review article entitled The Common Law Origins of the Infield Fly Rule, by William S. Stevens, 123 U. Penn. L. Rev. 1474 (1975).

3For more details about APIs see the July 2, 2015 Subway Fold post entitled The Need for Specialized Application Programming Interfaces for Human Genomics R&D Initiatives

Latest Census on Virtual Senses: A Seminar on Augmented Reality in New York

"3D Augmented Reality Sculpture 3", Image by Travis Morgan

“3D Augmented Reality Sculpture 3”, Image by Travis Morgan

I stepped out of the 90-degree heat and through the front door of Adorama, a camera, electronics and computer store on West 18th Street in Manhattan just before 6:00 pm on July 28, 2015. I quickly felt like I had entered another world¹ as I took my seat for a seminar entitled the Future of Augmented Reality Panel with Erek Tinker. It was the perfect venue, literally and figuratively to, well, focus on this very exciting emerging technology. (Recent trends and developments in this field have been covered in these six Subway Fold posts.)

An expert panel of four speakers involved in developing augmented reality (AR) discussed the latest trends and demo-ed an array of way cool products and services that wowed the audience.  The moderator, Erek Tinker ( the Director of Business Development at an NYC software development firm The Spry Group), did an outstanding job of presenting the speakers and keeping the audience involved with opportunities for their own insightful questions.

This just-over-the-horizon exploration and displays of AR-enhanced experiences very effectively drew everyone into the current capabilities and future potential of this hybridization of the real and the virtual.

So, is AR really the next big thing or a just another passing fad? All of the panel members made their captivating and compelling cases in this order:

  • Dusty Wright is a writer, musician, and has recently joined FuelFX as the Director of Business Development in AR and VR. The company has recently worked on entertainment apps including, among others, their recent collaboration on a presentation of AR-enhanced images by the artist Ron English at the 2015 SXSW festival.²
  • Brian Hamilton, the head Business Development for the eastern US for a company DAQRI, spoke about and presented a video on the company’s recently rolled out “Smart Helmet“. This is a hardhat with a clear visor that displays, using proprietary software and hardware,  AR imagery and data to the worker wearing it. He described this as “industrial  POV augmented reality” and believes that AR will be a part of the “next industrial revolution” enabling workers to move through their work with the data they need.
  • Miguel Sanchez is the Founder and Creative Director of Mass Ideation, a digital creative agency working with AR, among its other strategic and design projects. He sees a bright future in the continuing commercialization and application of AR, but also believes that the public needs to be better educated on the nature and capabilities of it. He described a project for a restaurant chain that wanted to shorten the time their customers waited for food by providing AR-enabled games and videos. He thinks that in the right environments, users can hold up their smartphones to objects and soon sees all manner of enhanced visual features onscreen.
  • Anthony Mattana is the founder of Hooke Audio which has developed an app and wireless headphones for recording and playing “immersive 3D audio”. The technology is build upon the concept of binaural audio which captures sound identically as it is heard. He showed this video of a band’s live performance contrasting the smartphone’s standard recording capabilities with the company’s technology. The difference in sound quality and depth was quite dramatic. This video and five others appear on Hooke’s home page. He said their first products will be shipped within a few months.

Mr. Tinker then turned to all of the panelists for their perspectives on the following:

  • Adoption Forecasts: When shown a slide of AR’s projected market growth of companies producing this hardware, everyone concurred on this predicted 10-year upward inclination. Mr. Sanchez expects the biggest breakthroughs for AR to be in gaming systems.
  • Apple’s Potential Involvement: Mr. Wright noted that Apple has just recently acquired an AR and computer vision company called Metaio. He thus expects that Apple may create a version of AR similar to their highly popular Garage Band music recording system. Mr. Sanchez added that he expects Apple to connect AR to their Siri and Maps technologies. He further suggested that AR developers should look for apps that solve problems and that in the future users may not even recognize AR technology in operation.
  • AR versus VR: Mr. Mattana said that he finds “AR to be more compelling than VR” and that it is better because you can understand it, educate users about it, and it is “tethered to powerful computing” systems. He thinks the main challenge for AR is to make it “socially acceptable”, noting the much publicized awkwardness perceived awkwardness of Google Glass.

Turning to the audience for Q&A, the following topics were addressed:

  • Privacy: How could workers’ privacy be balanced and protected when an AR system like the Smart Helmet can monitor a worker’s entire shift? Mr. Hamilton replied that he has spoken with union representatives about this. He sees this as a “solvable concern”. Furthermore, workplace privacy with respect to AR must include considerations of corporate policy, supporting data security, training and worker protection.
  • Advertising:  All of the panel members agree that AR content must be somehow monetized. (This topic was covered in detail in the May 25, 2015 Subway Fold post entitled Advertisers Looking for New Opportunities in Virtual and Augmented Spaces.)
  • Education Apps: Mr. Wright believes that AR will be “a great leveler” in education in many school settings and for students with a wide range of instructional requirements, including those with special needs. Further, he anticipates that this technology will be applied to gamify education. Mr. Mattana mentioned that blind people have shown great interest in binaural audio.
  • New Sources and Online Resources: The panelists recommended the following
  • Medical Application: Mr. Wright demo-ed with the use of a tablet held up to a diagram, an application called “Sim Man 3D” created for Methodist Hospital in Houston. This displayed simulated anatomical functioning and sounds.
  • Neural Connections: Will AR one day directly interface with the human brain? While not likely anytime soon, the panel predicted possible integration with electroencephalograms (EEG) and neural interfaces within 10 years or so.
  • Media Integration: The panel speculated about how the media, particularly in news coverage, might add AR to virtually place readers more within the news being reported.

Throughout the seminar, all of the speakers emphasized that AR is still at its earliest stages and that many opportunities await in a diversity of marketplaces. Judging from their knowledge, enthusiasm, imaginations and commitments to this nascent technology, I left thinking they are quite likely to be right.


June 5, 2017 Update: For latest development’s on DAQRI’s AR technology and products, see this June 3, 2017 post entitled Why Daqri Has Spread Its Bets with Augmented Reality Technology, by Dean Takahashi, on VentureBeat.com.


1.  Not so ironically, when someone from the audience was asking a question, he invoked an episode of from the classic sci-fi TV series The Outer Limits. Does anyone remember the truly extraordinary episode entitled Demon with a Glass Hand?

2.  See the March 26, 2015 Subway Fold Thread entitled Virtual Reality Movies Wow Audiences at 2015’s Sundance and SXSW Festivals for extensive coverage on VR at both of these festivals.

Three New Perspectives on Whether Artificial Intelligence Threatens or Benefits the World

"Gritty Refraction", Image by Mark Oakley

“Gritty Refraction”, Image by Mark Oakley

As the velocity of the rate of change in today’s technology steadily continues to increase, one of the contributing factors behind this acceleration the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). “Smart” attributes and functionalities are being baked into a multitude of systems that are affecting our lives in many visible and, at other times, transparent ways. Just to name one well-known example of an AI-enabled app is Siri, the voice recognition system in the iPhone. Two recent Subway Fold posts have also examined AI’s applications in law (1) and music (2).

However, notwithstanding all of the technological, social and commercial benefits produced by AI, a widespread reluctance, if not fear, of its capabilities to produce negative effects still persists. Will the future produce consequences resembling those in the Terminator or Matrix movie franchises, the “singularity” predicted by Ray Kurzweil where machine intelligence will eventually surpass human intelligence, or perhaps other more benign and productive outcomes?

During the past two weeks, three articles have appeared where their authors have expressed more upbeat outlooks about AI’s potential. They believe that smarter systems are not going to become the world’s new overlords (3) and, moreover, there is a long way to go before computers will ever achieve human-level intelligence or even consciousness. I highly recommend reading them all in their entirety for their rich content, insights and engaging prose.

I will sum up, annotate and comment upon some of the key points in these pieces, which have quite a bit in common in their optimism, analyses and forecasts.

First is a reassuring column by Dr. Gary Marcus, a university professor and corporate CEO, entitled Artificial Intelligence Isn’t a Threat—Yet, that appeared in the December 12, 2014 edition of The Wall Street Journal. While acknowledging the advances in machine intelligence, he still believes that computers today are nowhere near “anything that looks remotely like human intelligence”. However,  computers do not necessarily need to be “superintelligent” to do significant harm such as wild swings in the equities markets resulting from programming errors.(4)

He is not calling for an end to further research and development in AI. Rather, he urges proceeding with caution with safeguards carefully in place focusing upon on the apps access to other networked systems, in areas such as, but not limited to, medicine and autos. Still, the design, implementation and regulation of such “oversight” has yet to be worked out.

Dr. Marcus believes that we might now be overly concerned about any real threats from AI while still acknowledging potential threats from it. He poses questions about levels of transparency and technologies that assess whether AI programs are functioning as intended. Essentially, a form of “infrastructure” should be  in place to evaluate and “control the results” if needed.

Second, is an article enumerating five key reasons why the AI apocalypse is not nearly at hand right now. It is aptly entitled Will Artificial Intelligence Destroy Humanity? Here are Reasons Not to Worry, by Timothy B. Lee, which was posted on Vox.com on December 19, 2014. The writer asserts that the fears and dangers of AI are far overstated based on his research and interviews with some AI experts. To sum up these factors:

  • Actual “intelligence” is dependent on real world experience such that massive computing power alone will not produce comparable capabilities in machines. The example cited here is studying a foreign language well enough to pass as a native speaker. This involves both book learning and actually speaking with locals in order to include social elements and slang. A computer does not and never will have these experiences nor can they simulate them.
  • Computers, by their very nature, must reply on humans for maintenance, materials, repairs and ultimately, replacement. The current state of robotics development is unable to handle these responsibilities. Quite simply, machines need us and will continue to do so for a long time.
  • Creating a computerized equivalent of a real human’s brain is very tough and remains beyond the reach of today’s circuitry and programming.  Living neurons are indeed quite different in their behaviors and responses than digital devices.  The author cites the modeling of weather simulations as one where progress has been relatively small despite the huge increases in available processing capacity. Moreover, simulating brain activity in the an effort to generate a form of intelligence is relatively far more difficult than modeling weather systems.(5)
  • Relationships, more than intelligence, are needed to acquire power in the real world. Looking at the achievements of recent US presidents, the author states that they gained their achievements by virtue of their networks, personalities and skills at offering rewards and penalties. Thus, machines assist in attaining great technological breakthroughs, but only governments and companies can assemble to capital and resources to implement great projects. Taking this logic further, machines could never take over the world because they utterly lack the capability to work with the large numbers of people needed to even attempt this. (Take that, SkyNet.)
  • Intelligence will become less valuable as its supply increases according to the laws of supply and demand. As the pricing of computing continues to fall, their technological capabilities continues to rise. As the author interprets these market forces, the availability of “super-intelligent computers” will become commoditized and, in turn, produce even more intelligent machines where pricing is competitive. (6)

The third article presents a likewise sanguine view on the future of AI entitled Apocalypse or Golden Age: What Machine Intelligence Will Do to Us, by Patrick Ehlen, was posted on VentureBeat.com on December 23, 2014. He drew his research from a range of leaders, projects and studies to arrive at similar conclusions that the end of the world as we know it is not at hand because of AI. This piece overlaps with the others on a number of key points. It provides the following additional information and ideas:

  • Well regarded university researchers and tech giants such as Google are pursuing extensive and costly AI research and development programs in conjunction with their ongoing work into such areas as robotics, machine learning, and modeling simple connectomes (see fn.5 below).
  • Unintended bad consequence of well-intentioned research are almost always inevitable. Nonetheless, experts believe that the rate of advancement in this field will continue to accelerate and may well have significant impacts upon the world during the next 20 years.
  • On August 6, 2014, the Pew Internet Research Project published a comprehensive report that was directly on point entitled AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs by Aaron Smith and Janna Anderson. This was compiled based on surveys of nearly 1,900 AI experts. To greatly oversimplify the results, while there was largely a consensus view on the progress in this field and ever-increasing integration of AI into numerous areas, there was also a significant split of opinion as the economic,  employment and educational effects of AI in conjunction with robotics. (I highly recommend taking some time to read through this very enlightening report because of its wealth of insights and diversity of perspectives.)
  • Today we are experiencing a “perfect storm” where AI’s progress is further being propelled by the forces of computing power and big data. As a result, we can expect “to create new services that will redefine our expectations”. (7)
  • Certain sectors of our economy will realize greater benefits from the surge in AI than others.(8) This, too, will be likely to cause displacements and realignments in employment in these areas.
  • Changes to relevant social and public policies will be needed in order to successfully adapt to AI-driven effects upon the economy. (This is similar to Dr. Marcus’s views, above, that news forms of safeguards and infrastructure will become necessary.)

I believe that authors Marcus, Lee and Ehlen have all made persuasive cases that AI will continue to produce remarkable new goods, services and markets without any world threatening consequences. Yet they all alert their readers about the unintended and unforeseeable economic and social impacts that likely await us further down the road. My own follow up questions are as follows:

  • Who should take the lead in coordinating the monitoring of these pending changes? Whom should they report to and what, if any, regulatory powers should they have?
  • Will any resulting positive or negative changes attributable to AI be global if and when they manifest themselves, or will they be unevenly distributed in among only certain nations, cities, marketplaces, populations and so on?
  • Is a “negative” impact of AI only in the eye of the beholder? That is, what metrics and analytics exist or need to be developed in order to assess the magnitudes of plus or minus effects? Could such standards be truly objective in their determinations?
  • Assuming that AI development and investment continues to race ahead, will this lead to a possible market/investment bubble or, alternatively, some form of AI Industrial Complex?
  • So, is everyone looking forward to the July 2015 release of Terminator Genisys?

___________________________________

1.  See Possible Futures for Artificial Intelligence in Law Practice posted on September 1, 2014.

2.  See Spotify Enhances Playlist Recommendations Processing with “Deep Learning” Technology posted  on August 14, 2014.

3.  The origin of the popular “I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords” meme originated in the Season 5 episode 15 of The Simpsons entitled Deep Space Homer. (My favorite scene in this ep is where the – – D’oh! – – potato chips are floating all around the spaceship.)

4.   In Flash Boys (W.W. Norton & Company, 2014), renowned author Michael Lewis did an excellent job of reporting on high-speed trading and the ongoing efforts  to reform it. Included is coverage of the “flash crash” in 2010 when errant program trading caused a temporary steep decline in the stock market.

 5For an absolutely fascinating deep and wide analysis of current and future projects to map out all of the billions of connections among the neurons in the human brain, I suggest reading Connectome: How the Brain’s Wiring Makes Us Who We Are (Houghton Mifflin, 2012), by Sebastian Seung.  See also a most interesting column about the work of Dr. Seung and others by James Gorman in the November 10, 2014 edition of The New York Times entitled Learning How Little We Know About the Brain. (For the sake of all humanity, let’s hope these scientists don’t decide to use Homer J. Simpson, at fn.3 above, as a test subject for their work.)

6.  This factor is also closely related to the effects of Moore’s Law which states that the number of transistors that can be packed onto a chip doubles almost doubles in two years (later revised to 18 months). This was originally conceived by Gordon E. Moore, a legendary computer scientists and one of the founders of Intel. This principal has held up for nearly fifty years since it was first published.

7.  This technological convergence is fully and enthusiastically  explored in an excellent article by Kevin Kelly entitled The Three Breakthroughs That Have Finally Unleashed AI on the World in the November 2014 issue of WIRED.

8This seems like a perfect opportunity to invoke the often quoted maxim by master sci-fi and speculative fiction author William Gibson that “The future is already here – it’s just not very evenly distributed.”

Possible Futures for Artificial Intelligence in Law Practice

As the legal marketplace continues to see significant economic and productivity gains from many practice-specific technologies, is it possible that attorneys themselves could one day be supplanted by sophisticated systems driven by artificial intelligence (AI) such as IBM’s Watson?

Jeopardy championships aside for the moment, leading legal technology expert and blogger Ron Friedmann has posted a fascinating report and analysis on August 24, 2014 on his Prism Legal Strategic Technology Blog entitled Meet Your New Lawyer, IBM Watson. He covers an invitation-only session held for CIO’s of large global law firms held at this summer’s annual meeting held by International Legal Technology Association (ILTA) where a Watson senor manager made a presentation to this group. Ron, as he always does on his consistently excellent blog, offers his own deep and valuable insights on the practical and economic implications regarding the possible adaptation of Watson to the work done at large law firms. I highly recommend clicking-through and full read of this post.

(X-ref also to an earlier post here ILTA’s New Multi-dimensional Report on the Future of Legal Information Technology.)

As I was preparing to write this post a few days ago, lo and behold, my September 2014 subscription edition of WIRED arrived. It carries a highly relevant feature about a hush-hush AI startup, entitled Siri’s Inventors Are Building a Radical New AI That Does Anything You Ask, by Steven Levy. This is about the work of the founders of Viv Labs who are developing the next generation of AI technology. Even in a crowded field where many others have competed, the article indicates that this new company may really be onto something very new. That is, AI as a form of utility that can:

  • Access and integrate vast numbers of big data sources
  • Continually teach itself to do new things and autonomously generate supporting code to accomplish them
  • Handle voice queries on mobile devices that involve compound and multi-level questions,steps and sources to resolve

Please check out the full text of this article for all of the details about how Viv’s technology works and its exciting prospective uses.

That said, would Viv’s utility architecture as opposed to Watson’s larger scale technology be more conducive to today’s legal applications? Assuming for the moment that it’s technically feasible, how would the ability to operate by such voice-based AI input/output affect the operation and quality of results for, say, legal research services, document assembly applications, precedent libraries, enterprise search, wikis, extranets, and perhaps even Continuing Legal Education courses? What might be a tipping point towards a greater engagement of AI in the law across many types of practices and office settings? Might this result in in-house counsel bringing more work to their own staffs rather than going to outside counsel? Would public interest law offices be able to provide more economical services to clients who cannot normal afford to pay legal fees? Might this have further impacts upon the trends towards fixed fee-based billing arrangements?