Summary of the Media and Tech Preview 2016 Discussion Panel Held at Frankfurt Kurnit in NYC on December 2, 2015

"dtv svttest", Image by Karl Baron

“dtv svttest”, Image by Karl Baron

GPS everywhere notwithstanding, there are still maps on the walls in most buildings that have a red circle somewhere on them accompanied by the words “You are here”. This is to reassure and reorient visitors by giving them some navigational bearings. Thus you can locate where you are at the moment and then find your way forward.

I had the pleasure of attending an expert panel discussion last week, all of whose participants did an outstanding job of analogously mapping where the media and technology are at the end of 2015 and where their trends are heading going into the New Year. It was entitled Digital Breakfast: Media and Tech Preview 2016, was held at the law firm of Frankfurt Kurnit Klein & Selz in midtown Manhattan. It was organized and presented by Gotham Media, a New York based firm engaged in “Digital Strategy, Marketing and Events” as per their website.

This hour and a half presentation was a top-flight and highly enlightening event from start to finish. My gratitude and admiration for everyone involved in making this happen. Bravo! to all of you.

The panelists’ enthusiasm and perspectives fully engaged and transported the entire audience. I believe that everyone there appreciated and learned much from all of them. The participants included:

The following is a summary based on my notes.

Part 1:  Assessments of Key Media Trends and Events in 2015

The event began on an unintentionally entertaining note when one of the speakers, Jesse Redniss, accidentally slipped out his chair. Someone in the audience called out “Do you need a lawyer?”, and considering the location of the conference, the room erupted into laughter.¹

Once the ensuing hilarity subsided, Mr. Goldblatt began by asking the panel for their media highlights for 2015.

  • Ms. Bond said it was the rise of streaming TV, citing Netflix and Amazon, among other industry leaders. For her, this is a time of interesting competition as consumers have increasing control over what they view. She also believes that this is a “fascinating time” for projects and investments in this market sector. Nonetheless, she does not think that cable will disappear.
  • Mr. Kurnit said that Verizon’s purchase of AOL was one of the critical events of 2015, as Verizon “wants to be 360” and this type of move might portend the future of TV. The second key development was the emergence of self-driving cars, which he expects to see implemented within the next 5 to 15 years.
  • Mr. Redniss concurred on Verizon’s acquisition of AOL. He sees other activity such as the combination of Comcast and Universal as indicative of an ongoing “massive media play” versus Google and Facebook. He also mentioned the significance of Nielsen’s Total Audience Measure service.²
  • Mr. Sreenivasan stated that social media is challenging, as indicated by the recent appearance of “Facebook fatigue” affecting its massive user base. Nonetheless, he said “the empire strikes back” as evidenced in their strong financial performance and the recent launch of Chan Zuckerberg LLC to eventually distribute the couple’s $45B fortune to charity. He also sees that current market looking “like 2006 again” insofar as podcasts, email and blogs making it easy to create and distribute content.

Part 2: Today’s Golden Age of TV

Mr. Goldblatt asked the panel for their POVs on what he termed the current “Golden Age of TV” because of the increasing diversity of new platforms, expanding number of content providers and the abundance of original programming. He started off by asking them for their market assessments.

  • Ms. Bond said that the definition of “television” is now “any video content on any screen”. As a ubiquitous example she cited content on mobile platforms. She also noted proliferation of payment methods as driving this market.
  • Mr. Kurnit said that the industry would remain a bit of a “mess” for the next three or four years because of the tremendous volume of original programming, businesses that operate as content aggregators, and pricing differentials. Sometime thereafter, these markets will “rationalize”. Nonetheless, the quality of today’s content is “terrific”, pointing to examples by such media companies as the programs on AMC and HBO‘s Game of Thrones. He also said that an “unbundled model” of content offerings would enable consumers to watch anywhere.
  • Mr. Redniss believes that “mobile transforms TV” insofar as smartphones have become the “new remote control” providing both access to content and “disoverability” of new offerings. He predicted that content would become “monetized across all screens”.
  • Mr. Sreenivasan mentioned the growing popularity of binge-watching as being an important phenomenon. He believes that the “zeitgeist changes daily” and that other changes are being “led by the audience”.

The panel moved to group discussion mode concerning:

  • Consumer Content Options: Ms. Bond asked how will the audience pay for either bundled or unbundled programming options. She believes that having this choice will provide consumers with “more control and options”. Mr. Redniss then asked how many apps or services will consumers be willing to pay for? He predicted that “everyone will have their own channel”. Mr. Kurnit added that he thought there are currently too many options and that “skinny bundles” of programming will be aggregated. Mr. Sreenivasan pointed towards the “Amazon model” where much content is now available but it is also available elsewhere and then Netflix’s offering of 30 original shows. He also wanted to know “Who will watch all of this good TV?”
  • New Content Creation and Aggregation: Mr. Goldblatt asked the panelists whether a media company can be both a content aggregator and a content creator. Mr. Kurnit said yes and Mr. Redniss immediately followed by citing the long-tail effect (statistical distributions in business analytics where there are higher numbers of data points away from the initial top or central parts of the distribution)³. Therefore, online content providers were not bound by the same rules as the TV networks. Still, he could foresee some of Amazon’s and Netflix’s original content ending up being broadcast on them. He also gave the example of Amazon’s House of Cards original programming as being indicative of the “changing market for more specific audiences”. Ultimately, he believes that meeting such audiences’ needs was part of “playing the long game” in this marketplace. 
  • Binge-Watching: Mr. Kurnit followed up by predicting that binge-watching and the “binge-watching bucket” will go away. Mr. Redniss agreed with him and, moreover, talked about the “need for human interaction” to build up audiences. This now takes the form of “superfans” discussing each episode in online venues. For example, he pointed to the current massive marketing campaign build upon finding out the fate of Jon Snow on Games of Thrones.
  • Cord-Cutting: Mr. Sreenivasan believes that we will still have cable in the future. Ms. Bond said that service offerings like Apple TV will become more prevalent. Mr. Kunit said he currently has 21 cable boxes. Mr. Redniss identified himself as more of a cord-shaver who, through the addition of Netflix and Hulu, has reduced his monthly cable bill.

Part 3: Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR)

Moving on to two of the hottest media topics of the day, virtual reality and augmented reality, the panelist gave their views.

  • Mr. Sreenivasan expressed his optimism about the prospects of VR and AR, citing the pending market launches of the Oculus Rift headset and Facebook 360 immersive videos. The emergence of these technologies is creating a “new set of contexts”. He also spoke proudly of the Metropolitan Museum Media Lab using Oculus for an implementation called Diving Into Pollack (see the 10th project down on this page), that enables users to “walk into a Jackson Pollack painting”.
  • Mr. Kurnit raised the possibility of using Oculus to view Jurassic Park. In terms of movie production and immersion, he said “This changes everything”.
  • Mr. Redniss said that professional sports were a whole new growth area for VR and AR, where you will need “goggles, not a screen”. Mr. Kurnit followed up mentioning a startup that is placing 33 cameras at Major League Baseball stadiums in order to provide 360 degree video coverage of games. (Although he did not mention the company by name, my own Googling indicates that he was probably referring to the “FreeD” system developed by Replay Technologies.)
  • Ms. Bond posed the question “What does this do for storytelling?”4

(See also these 12 Subway Fold posts) for extensive coverage of VR and AR technologies and applications.)

Part 4: Ad-Blocking Software

Mr. Goldblatt next asked the panels for their thoughts about the impacts and economics of ad-blocking software.

  • Mr. Redniss said that ad-blocking apps will affect how advertisers get their online audience’s attention. He thinks a workable alternative is to use technology to “stitch their ads into content” more effectively.
  • Mr. Sreenivasan believes that “ads must get better” in order to engage their audience rather than have viewers looking for means to avoid them. He noted another alternative used on the show Fargo where network programming does not permit them to use fast-forward to avoid ads.
  • Mr. Kurnit expects that ads will be blocked based on the popularity and extensibility of ad-blocking apps. Thus, he also believes that ads need to improve but he is not confident of the ad industry’s ability to do so. Furthermore, when advertisers are more highly motivated because of cost and audience size, they produce far more creative work for events like the NFL Super Bowl.

Someone from the audience asked the panel how ads will become integrated into VR and AR environments. Mr. Redniss said this will happen in cases where this technology can reproduce “real world experiences” for consumers. An example of this is the Cruise Ship Virtual Tours available on Carnival Cruise’s website.

(See also this August 13, 2015 Subway Fold post entitled New Report Finds Ad Blockers are Quickly Spreading and Costing $Billions in Lost Revenue.)

Part 5: Expectations for Media and Technology in 2016

  • Mr. Sreenivasan thinks that geolocation technology will continue to find new applications in “real-life experiences”. He gave as an example the use of web beacons by the Metropolitan Museum.
  • Ms. Bond foresees more “one-to-one” and “one-to-few” messaging capabilities, branded emjois, and a further examination of the “role of the marketer” in today’s media.
  • Mr. Kurnit believes that drones will continue their momentum into the mainstream. He sees the sky filling up with them as they are “productive tools” for a variety of commercial applications.
  • Mr. Redniss expressed another long-term prospect of “advertisers picking up broadband costs for consumers”. This might take the form of ads being streamed to smart phones during NFL games. In the shorter term, he can foresee Facebook becoming a significant simulcaster of professional sporting events.

 


1.  This immediately reminded of a similar incident years ago when I was attending a presentation at the local bar association on the topic of litigating cases involving brain injuries. The first speaker was a neurologist who opened by telling the audience all about his brand new laptop and how it was the latest state-of-the-art-model. Unfortunately, he could not get it to boot up no matter what he tried. Someone from the back of audience then yelled out “Hey doc, it’s not brain surgery”. The place went into an uproar.

2.  See also these other four Subway Fold posts mentioning other services by Nielsen.

3.  For a fascinating and highly original book on this phenomenon, I very highly recommend reading
The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More (Hyperion, 2005), by Chris Anderson. It was also mentioned in the December 10, 2014 Subway Fold post entitled Is Big Data Calling and Calculating the Tune in Today’s Global Music Market?.

4.  See also the November 4, 2014 Subway Fold post entitled Say, Did You Hear the Story About the Science and Benefits of Being an Effective Storyteller?

Is Big Data Calling and Calculating the Tune in Today’s Global Music Market?

music-159870_1280-1The extraordinary degree to which big data apps and analytical services are now affecting the marketing, economics, talent development and the popularity of new tunes, has just been thoroughly and expertly explored in an article in the November 2014 issue of The Atlantic entitled The Shazam Effect, by Derek Thompson. This report covers this phenomenon across a multitude of musical genres and commercial venues. I highly recommend checking out this piece in its entirety for a true sense of this ongoing revolution in terms of the leading participants and the fascinating issues concerning business and creativity.

The following is my own summary, annotations and commentary upon just some of the key – – forgive me – – players, market data and open issues worth, well, noting.

I.  Today’s Key Music Business Data Players:

  • Shazam on its surface is an app that helps users to identify a particular song or melody. To date, it have been downloaded half a billion times and is searched 20 million times each day. It can identify emerging songs with breakout potential months in advance. While users enjoy its ability to readily identify a song, the music industry engage it as and early radar array. As well, it assists in identify unknown performers for talent scouts and agents.
  • Pandora and Spotify data sets are used by concert promoters and performers to shape touring venues and set lists. (X-ref to this August 14, 2014 Subway Fold post entitled Spotify Enhances Playlist Recommendations Processing with “Deep Learning” Technology.) One of Pandor’s executives, Eric Bieschke,  is quoted that his online service is not driven by a singular algorithm, but rather “a meta-algorithm that directs all of the other algorithms” to enable users to select songs and artists from the vast  troves of music across the Web.
  • Next Big Sound is a dedicated music analytics firm that gathers, blends and assesses relevant data streams from Spotify, Instagram and other online sources. In turn it sifts through this to identify 100 possible music stars to emerge during the next year. They are currently achieving a success rate of twenty percent. The company also offers a subscription based customizable search tool called “Find”  that will gather and assess selected data flows from Twitter, Facebook and other social platforms. They have found performers’ Wikipedia pages to be valuable predictors.
  • iHeartMedia (previously known as Clear Channel¹) uses Shazam to gauge the virality of new songs and Nielsen Audio deployment of tech called Portable People Meters to track individuals’ radio listening, (X-ref to this July 31, 2014 Subway Fold post about Nielsen’s data and analytics work entitled New Analytical Twitter Traffic Report on US TV Shows During the 2013 – 2014 Season.) HitPredictor, a subsidiary of iHeartRadio, accurately forecasts hits prior to their release by playing them for a large online test audience in order to solicit their feedback.
  • Billboard Top 100 (BT100) combines point-of-sales sales data, download music numbers and Nielsen’s listening metrics. One result is that songs remain on the BT100 longer. As a result of this “the relative value of a hot has exploded”. Thus, the top 1% of recording artists earn 77% of all recorded music sales, while the top 10 selling songs have increased their capture of the market by 82% during the last decade. This is indeed a market where the revenue rich continue to get richer revenues.

II. Current Market Influences and Trends:

  • Wisdom of the Crowds:  Before the advent of big data, music company execs largely relied on their own instincts in choosing artists and products to promote. Now with the advent of these sophisticated apps and services, they are relying on upon a group f principles known as the wisdom of the crowds². Very simply stated, large and diverse groups of people, such as the web-wide millions using these services, is more likely to make more accurate decisions and forecasts than smaller groups and/or experts in the relevant field(s).
  • The Long Tail Effect:  As noted above, there is an intense and very small concentration among artists for whom big data and analytics is producing economic rewards.³
  • Social Media:  Some, but not all to the same degree, of these platforms are now the major drivers in marketing new artists and their new music. They might even be more influential than the tradition of drawing audiences to live concerts.
  • Radio Airplay:  This mainstream media, while maintaining its ongoing relevance in the music business, likewise replies just as heavily on all of the social media and data analytics in order to “connect all these dots”. The Wisdom of the Crowds also plays an integral part of radio programming.*
  • Overproduction of Repetitive and Bland Music:  Music industry people whom Thompson approached for this article expressed concern that the data-driven nature of today’s market is producing a “clustering” of music in different genres and, in turn, noticeable levels of sameness and copycat acts. Nonetheless, he further writes that research shows that listeners very often seek out familiar music they have heard many times before.
  • Effects Upon Musical Artists: Notwithstanding the prior point, musicians and composers are aware of this phenomenon but generally have limited its effects upon their creative output. As well, some will add variations and imperfections to their live performances in order to keep them sounding fresh. (X-ref to this August 11, 2014 Subway Fold Post entitled The Spirit of Rock and Roll Lives on Little Steven’s Underground Garage about how, among other things, this is one of the basic tenets of  Garage Rock.)

III. Ongoing Issues:

  • At the very heart of all of this activity is, as precisely framed by Thompson “What do people want to hear next?”
  • While the music business is significantly benefiting from the accuracy of all of this data and calculation, is it likewise producing “better”, more diverse and imaginative music for audiences to consume?

My own additional questions include:

  • Despite the Long Tail effect, are artists is the much longer end of the curve still accruing some demonstrable benefits from big data insofar are being heard by larger audiences online and in concert?
  • Based upon the monumental amounts of past, present and future data about music and the music industry, could deep learning and other artificial intelligence (AI) methods be used to produce genuine hit songs in multiple genres, without any human intervention? Alternatively, is the human touch always needed in the musical arts? If the answer ever turns out to be “not always”, what are the implications?
  • Could analytics and AI produce a new genre of music that is not necessarily a hybrid? That is, are there sounds, rhythms, arrangements, styles, tablatures and so on that have not yet emerged and can be entirely machine synthesized?
  • The article mentions that Led Zeppelin’s iconic Stairway to Heaven was never played much after its initial release and that it never landed on the BT100. As an experiment to test the validity and accuracy of today’s music data apps and services, what would happen if many such great hit were retroactively tested? Would any be proven to be hits that never should have occurred according to today’s tech and, conversely, are there obscure songs from years ago that would produce results indicating they should have been hits? Could or even should, such results be used to further fine tune, if not develop new musical data methods and metrics?
  • What other new opportunities will arise, based on this merger or art and science, for entrepreneurs, artists, talent scouts and agents, established music companies, and concert halls?

December 19, 2014 Update: 

Adding to the big data strategies and implementations for three more major music companies and their rosters of artists was a very informative report in the December 15, 2014 edition of The Wall Street Journal by Hannah Karp entitled Music Business Plays to Big Data’s Beat. (A subscription for the full text required a subscription to WSJonline.com, but the story also appeared in full on Nasdaq.com clickable here.) As described in detail in this report, Universal Music, Warner Music, and Sony Music have all created sophisticated systems to parse numerous data sources and apply customized analytics for planning and executing marketing campaigns.

Next for an alternative and somewhat retro approach, a veteran music retailer named Sal Nunziato wrote a piece on the Op Ed page of The New York Times on the very same day entitled Elegy for the ‘Suits’. He blamed the Internet more than the music labels for the current state of music where “anyone with a computer, a kazoo and an untuned guitar” can release their music  online regardless of its quality. Thus, the ‘suits’ he nostalgically misses were the music company execs who exerted  more controlled upon the quantity and quality of music available to the public.

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1Right Off the Dial  (Faber & Faber, 2009), by Alec Foege, chronicled the causes and effects of the company’s rapid rise in the commercial radio industry. I found this to be an eye-opening and very informative account of rapid consolidation within a specific sector of the mainstream media. I recommend it to anyone interested in this company and topic.

2.  For a well reviewed and highly readable treatise on this, I also very highly recommend The Wisdom of
the Crowds by James Surowiecki (Doubleday, 2004). Also here is a Wikipedia page summarizing some of the main points of the book.

3.  The definitive and superlative book on one of the most interesting outgrowths of online commerce is The Long Tail by Chris Anderson (Hyperion, 2006). Furthermore, I also highly recommend his incredibly diverse and entertaining show on NPR called Studio 360.

*  I still that think Bruce Springsteen’s take on the state of music radio in 2007, Radio Nowhere, deserves a click and listening here. Besides, it’s an exhilarating rocker.